How feasible are these 2050 targets?

The year 2050 is the target moment for those who want an end to greenhouse gas emissions, and a lot of countries have signed up to it. Ours hasn’t yet, thank goodness. The target year is a long way away, and nearly all of those who have signed up to it won’t be alive then, I should think. I shan’t be there — I’d be 113 if I were, and that is rather unlikely, to say the least. How is the process of transition going to work? I haven’t seen any detailed plans for implementation. I doubt there are any, at least in the world of publication. It all seems to depend on technological advances that are referred to as likely, R&D that is going to be funded on a gigantic scale, advances in the use of elements like hydrogen, and giant batteries, the like of which we do not have now. I am sceptical about all of this, but don’t really care, because I don’t think it will happen and to repeat, I won’t be here anyway.

Well, Vaclav Smil, a Distinguished Professor Emeritus at the University of Manitoba, has written a clear and accessible article suggesting that 2050 is far too soon a target-year for all of this to take place. It’s an interesting piece in other ways, too, for it is built around the notion of ‘energy transitions’, the first of which was the shift from traditional biofuels (wood, charcoal and crop waste) and ‘animate prime movers’ (human and animal muscle) to inanimate energy converters like water-wheels and windmills. That transition took a thousand years or so. Then came the second shift, to the burning of fossil fuels for heat and to generate electricity. This second transition began in the 19thcentury and only after 1950 in most of Asia. The place of coal declined after 1900 as the use of oil and gas increased.

The author goes on: In contrast to previous energy transitions the unfolding quest for decarbonization is not primarily driven by resource shortages or technical imperatives (most of the existing conversions are highly efficient and also very reliable). Today’s quest for decarbonization has one dominant goal: limiting the extent of global warming. The goal is to establish a new global energy system devoid of any combustion of carbon-containing fuels or the world with net-zero carbon emissions where a limited amount of fossil fuel combustion would be negated by the removal and sequestration of the gas from the atmosphere resulting in no additional carbon releases…

 Later he adds this quirky thought: The most important fact of rising concerns about global warming is that the world has been running into fossil carbon, not moving away from it. He provides chapter and verse: China and India are responsible.

 And then this: Historians of energy transitions are not surprised by this development, as history shows that neither the dominant sources of primary energy nor the common energy converters can be displaced rapidly and completely in short periods of time. The high degree of the global dependence on fossil carbon and the enormous scale of the fuel-dominated global energy system mean that the unfolding energy transition will inevitably follow the progress of all previous large-scale primary energy shifts and that it will be a gradual, prolonged affair.

Smil argues that it really doesn’t matter how much more alternative energy we have. [Even] if the decarbonization of global electricity generation were to proceed at an unprecedented pace, only the availability of affordable, massive-scale electricity storage would make it possible to envisage a reliable system that could rely solely on intermittent renewable energies of solar radiation and wind… Even securing just three days-worth of storage for a megacity of more than 10 million people that would be cut off from its intermittent renewable sources (a common occurrence during the monsoonal season in Asia with heavily overcast skies and high winds) would be prohibitively expensive by using today’s commercial batteries.

It’s not on, he might have said. The only way to store electricity at gigawatt scale is pumped hydro, which is a lengthy business and not really efficient. Anyway, at a global level, electricity generation accounts for only twenty per cent of total final energy consumption. The other eighty per cent is much more challenging, and he goes on to set out why. He sees electric vehicles (EVs) as representing at best twenty per cent of all cars in 2040. But that’s just cars, so to speak.

Shipping and flying present particularly insurmountable challenges as only high energy density fuels can power massive container ships carrying more than 20,000 steel units on their long intercontinental routes (Smil2019) and high-capacity commercial airliners. He points out that while air-conditioning relies on electricity, heating in cold parts of Eurasia and North America now relies overwhelmingly on natural gas delivered by large-diameter trunk lines and dense networks of small-diameter distribution lines serving more than half a billion customers. Obviously, replacing this fuel supply and abandoning this extensive infrastructure will not be achieved over a single generation.

He has styled ammonia, cement, steel and plastics as the four pillars of modern civilisation, and all of them depend on fossil fuel stocks. Without the synthesis of ammonia, he argues, half of today’s global population would not be here. And there are no available non-carbon alternatives that could be readily deployed on mass commercial scales. There are innovations that the green dreamers rely on, but none of these innovations has been deployed even as pilot plant experiments, and once again, it is obvious that scaling up those processes that may eventually prove acceptable in order to reach annual outputs of hundreds of millions, even billions, of tonnes is a task that would take generations to accomplish.

And to conclude, Designing hypothetical roadmaps outlining complete elimination of fossil carbon from the global energy supply by 2050 (Jacobson et al. 2017) is nothing but an exercise in wishful thinking that ignores fundamental physical realities. And it is no less unrealistic to propose legislation claiming that such a shift can be accomplished in the US by 2030 (Ocasio-Cortez 2019). Such claims are simply too extreme to be defended as aspirational. The complete decarbonization of the global energy supply will be an extremely challenging undertaking of an unprecedented scale and complexity that will not be accomplished — even in the case of sustained, dedicated and extraordinarily costly commitment — in a matter of few decades.

This is tough stuff, and since it accords with my own thinking I am inclined to agree with him. It’s a good paper, and well worth a read. It makes me feel, yet again, that the whole 2050 target has nothing to do with science and technology and a great deal to do with politics. I hope that our PM, who must know all this, can be prevailed upon to stick to his current strategy — say as little and do as little as possible in this fraught domain.



Join the discussion 119 Comments

  • Neville says:

    I heartily agree Don and the entire idea is just more BS and fra-d and would bankrupt any country that was stu-pid enough to try.
    And it wouldn’t make any measurable difference to climate or temp by 2100 and beyond EVEN IF WE REDUCED HUMAN co2 EMISSIONS TO ZERO TODAY.
    Or for a thousand years, see The Conversation article, the Zickfeld study, The RS and NAS etc.

  • Tony Thomas says:

    The unfeasibility of newt zero targets is also spelt out here

    • Neville says:

      Thanks for your Quadrant article Tony and both you and Roger Peilke are always good value and very accurate as well.

  • Neville says:

    And the CSIRO informs us that the entire SH is already net zero, so let’s leave it up to the NH countries to follow this BS and nonsense and leave us alone.

    • Stu says:

      Yes, a bit like Covid you seem to be suggesting. Good luck with that.

      • Boambee John says:


        Better luck than consciously destroying our economy for zero effect on the climate, even if (a very big IF) the alarmists are correct.

        But don’t you worry Stu Micawber, wishful thinking will lead to something turning up!

  • Stu says:

    Quote “ I am sceptical about all of this, but don’t really care, because I don’t think it will happen and to repeat, I won’t be here anyway.” So there is an admission of that characteristic of the denier-sphere that I have been criticised here for suggesting exists.

    It is a rather loose comparison but the folk who served and died in WW2 did not see the outcome either but they made their contribution to it. A precautionary approach to AGW does seem to be sensible to some at least. And until the knockers come up with a good theory and models that can explain the changes going on, if they do not relate to CO2 I see every reason to proceed the way we seem to be heading. There is a great deal of classic reactionary thinking on the subject which I read somewhere, but cannot find the link, has a high correlation with advanced age.

    • spangled drongo says:

      Stu compares “the folk who served and died in WW2 did not see the outcome either but they made their contribution to it” with SJWs.

      What a stu-pidly shallow comment about heroic people who fully understood what was in store for their beloved country and culture if they were not prepared to put their lives on the line.

      Comparing their total understanding, love and commitment with your half baked, evidence-free “precaution” is obtuse arrogance.

      Did you really mean a loose comparison, stu, or a screw-loose comparison?

      • Aert Driessen says:

        Stu, you say “… come up with a good theory and models that can explain the changes going on, if they do not relate to CO2 I see every reason to proceed the way we seem to be heading.” Don’t you understand the meaning of a ‘one in a sixty year event’, or a ‘one in a hundred year event’? It means Stu, that all these things have happened before, and even more severely. Do some reading Stu, and do yourself a favour.

        • Stu says:

          “Don’t you understand the meaning of a ‘one in a sixty year event’, or a ‘one in a hundred year event’? It means Stu, that all these things have happened before, and even more severely.”

          That looks like a classic misunderstanding of what climate change is about and what the scientists are saying. Don’t you understand the reality of the climate system highs and lows? The issue is the shifting of the temperature curve to the right over time. There are plenty of places exhibiting more new extreme highs than extreme lows, but those lows will also continue.

          Back to your “one in sixty and one in a hundred” year events. There are also “one in longer time frame events” such is the nature of seasonal climate. And if you check you will find the weather (not climate) and town planning folks are talking about having to revise those numbers. This is because these “one in a hundred year” events are happening too often.

          • Aert Driessen says:

            Stu, As a geologist, I know more about climate and climate change than weather and weather change. We have good and reliable proxy data on Earth’s climate since the start of the Cambrian, 540 million years (Ma) before present (BP). Over that interval, there is absolute no correlation between temperature and atmospheric CO2, nil. Indeed in that time span we are close to the lowest CO2 level, down to 400 ppm from around 6000 ppm or more over certain periods. We have cycled in and out of several ice ages, irrespective of CO2 levels. Indeed we are currently in an ice age, albeit in what is known as a (warm) interglacial epoch which, going by the duration of previous interglacials (roughly 10,000 years or more), must be close to ending (according to satellite data it hasn’t warmed for 20 years). All short-term climate variations (call them weather patterns if you like) since to last ice age 11 ka BP, lie within the limits of natural variation, meaning nothin unusual going on, and indeed on a downward (cooling) trend. You don’t have to read learned book about this. Just googling ‘Holocene climate optimum) will explain much and also show useful graphic plots. As for town planners, by all means look again at your data, but my general advise would be, don’t build on flood plains even though that is the cheapest place to build. Building dykes in strategic location might also help; ask the Dutch for advice on that. As for CO2 sequestration, be careful what you wish for. If atmospheric CO2 drops to around 180 ppm, we are all dead. All said and done, climate change is what happens between ice ages.

      • Stu says:

        You will see I wrote “ It is a rather loose comparison ”. Analogies are often like that. Do pay attention.

    • Boambee John says:


      “And until the knockers come up with a good theory and models that can explain the changes going on”.

      It would be useful if the alarmists could “come up with a good theory and models that can explain the changes going on”. So far they haven’t. They come up with stuff that deludes the scientifically ignorant, but that is all.

  • Karabar says:

    As we slide from Western Civilisation and the Enlightenment back into the Dark Ages, the populace seems to thrive on myth and witchcraft.
    The entire drive against coal and other fossil fuels is based on the delusion that carbon dioxide plays any significant role in determining the weather.
    There is simply no reason to believe that it does. Nor is there any reason to think that the Earth and the atmopshere that surrounds it bears any resemblance whatsoever to a “greenhouse”.
    Yet as Edward Bernays so aptly pointed out, propaganda can shape an entire populace so long as the lies are enormous and repeated incessantly.
    So long as we continue to ignore reason and logic, the world populatioon will exhaust itself in pursuit of six impossible things before breakfast, “net zero” being one, and gene therapy that poses as a “vaccine” but which is actually intended to cause ADE (antibody-dependent enhancement) being another.

    • Stu says:

      “ As we slide from Western Civilisation and the Enlightenment back into the Dark Ages,”. Classic denialist ploy, emotion filled exaggeration and wrong.

      • Boambee John says:


        ” Classic denialist ploy, emotion filled exaggeration and wrong”

        That is classic alarmist technique, emotion filled exaggeration and wrong.

    • Chris Warren says:

      What a slow, slow learner…

      The entire drive against coal and other fossil fuels is based on the delusion that carbon dioxide plays any significant role in determining the weather. There is simply no reason to believe that it does. Nor is there any reason to think that the Earth and the atmopshere that surrounds it bears any resemblance whatsoever to a “greenhouse”.

      All of science and all data is showing a clear anthropogenic greenhouse effect.

      • spangled drongo says:

        You forgot to add; but only in climate models.

        • Aert Driessen says:

          Touche SD, and you could have added that there has been no warming since 2000 despite rising CO2, the latter a bonus in the form of a greening planet and increased crop yields.

      • Boambee John says:


        I’m sure it is only your most becoming modesty that prevents you from telling us which branch of climate science you specialise in, but don’t be shy. Tell us now.

      • Karabar says:

        “All of science and all data is showing a clear anthropogenic greenhouse effect.”
        So let’s use that process called “science” to test the hypothesis.

        The hypothesis relies on the myth that a trace gas, CO2, elevates Earthly temperatures.
        But Geology is clear that changes in CO2 LAG changes in temperature by about 800 years.
        Hypothesis status: EPIC FAIL.

        The hypothesis relies on the idea that the mechanism by which the trace gas influences temperature because it “absorbs” IR energy. This means a higher proportion of CO2 leads to higher temperatures.
        However, this phenomenon is not linear and any such effect is null if CO2 is beyond about 200 ppm. Beyond that there is no effect whatsoever.
        Hypothesis status: EPIC FAIL.

        The hypothesis suggests that an increase from 390 ppm to 410 ppm would result in higher temperatures.
        Yet the very opposite has been the result since about 2006.
        Hypothesis status: EPIC FAIL

        The hypothesis maintains that a “doubling” of atmospheric CO2 would result in an increase of three degrees.
        The CO2 component of Earth’s atmosphere has changed from 250 ppm to over 400 ppm since 1850.
        Yet, if there is any difference in temperature since 1850, it is less than one tenth of that.
        Hypothesis status: EPIC FAIL.

  • Neville says:

    Here’s my last comment on the last issue and is another part of their so called reduction in co2 emissions. And of course just more BS and fra-dulent nonsense and at a cost of many more trillions $.

    I find it incredible that otherwise intelligent people are fooled by the fra-dulent carbon offsets market and others involved are in it only for the money. And other scumbags literally laugh about it as they rake in the dough.

    Who could forget some of these con merchants who laughed out loud during the Planet of the Humans video? Just fits the old saying “laughing all the way to the bank” and I’m sure China and other developing countries have many belly laughs to share.

    Way back I mentioned the Bernie Madoff scandal /fra-d/ponzi scheme that was quickly solved by Maths genius Harry Markopolous, but wasn’t acted on by the US SEC etc for a further 9 years and by then more financial ruin and untold damage to many more people.
    But all the different fra-dulent con merchants and schemes involved in their so called Climate crisis are a lot more complicated and involves govts of all persuasions across the globe. Of course today the fra-dulent schemes involve trillions $ and yet we’ve hardly started to have a serious conversation about this in our media.

    Here’s a few paragraphs about the carbon offsets BS and fra-d from “The Conversation” article linked to by SD a few days ago. Andrew Bolt covered this topic years ago, but nobody today seems to have the nerve to take this on, although it is just more BS and fra-d and this time literally makes money out of the air we breathe. And much laughter, illusion and fantasies as they sell their con tricks.

    “Its failures are already accounted for”

    “To help explain the new hype around carbon offsetting and its return to a central position in climate policy, I argue in a new paper in the journal Environmental Politics that one of the reasons carbon offsetting continues is because of fantasy. According to a psychoanalytic approach to the critique of ideology – which has been advanced prominently by the philosopher Slavoj Žižek – fantasy is a means by which ideology takes its failures into account, in advance.

    Fantasy helps explain why knowledge about intractable problems may not stop carbon offsetting: its failures are already accounted for within the ideological formation. To research this further, I linked psychoanalytic theory to transcripts of interviews that I conducted with 65 practitioners involved with carbon offset markets. My analysis suggests that many of those involved recognise, at different levels, the gap between the spectacular portrayals of carbon offsetting and its deficiencies in practice. Awareness of this gap is managed through cynical forms of reasoning and knowledge disavowal.
    Problems are known – but suppressed

    Cynical reasoning involves knowledge that one is perpetuating an illusion or a problem, but doing it anyway. It sometimes involves laughter which mocks the predicament of the self. For example, one person selling offsets told me they only partly believe in carbon offsetting, and then laughed. Knowledge disavowal involves knowing about the existence of problems, but suppressing that knowledge. Those involved in carbon offsetting need not laugh at themselves all the time – disavowal also works for them.

    Cynical reasoning and disavowal are not very disruptive to the social fantasy, which circulates through markets populated by experts who proclaim that offsets are genuine and legitimate. Figures of authority in the offset market – people with claims to expertise who talk about “high-quality” offsetting – reinforce fantasy. Doubts about offsetting are calmed, because even if one person does not (fully) believe, someone else will do it for them, in a process that repeats.

    Furthermore, fantasy shapes our desires, so this account helps explain the emotions, enthusiasm and hype. On some level, people want to believe in carbon offsetting because it offers to rekindle capitalism’s promise that we can enjoy consumerism without being too concerned about ecological crisis, by delivering a seductive story of power and status in which somebody else cleans up the mess. Even if you are already an offset sceptic, we had better recognise that this fantasy runs deep”.

  • spangled drongo says:

    Good and logical points, supported by evolutionary experience, Don.

    It’s interesting how the SJWs like our stu can adopt their line of wishful thinking without ever showing us their logic or how it will ever work.

    I wasn’t aware that back in his school days the kiddies were being brainwashed like today. He sounds like my grandchildren. You have to feel sorry for the little suckers.

    How long will it take for their true belief to be shattered?

    • Aert Driessen says:

      How long SD? Until snow fails to melt completely in the summer that follows, and the next winter adds more snow. That’s how glaciers and ice sheets form, and it will mark the end of the interglacial, and resumption of the ice age that we are already in.

  • Aynsley Kellow says:

    Good article Don – and a good link. Many are now realising that the basic physics are against replacing fossil fuels with renewables and batteries or pumped storage. MJ Kelly pointed to them in 2015 in ‘Lessons from technology development for energy and sustainability’. The land use implications alone involved in supplying megacities like Shanghai with solar and wind mean that they would be surrounded with many of the things, displacing agriculture and all other uses. The low density and low load factors mean vastly expensive transmission infrastructure – huge demands for copper, etc to go with the huge requirements for battery chemicals. And then there are the waste implications: solar panels and composite turbine blades (and batteries) cannot be recycled so go to landfill.

    Even with nuclear, I think Lomborg has suggested the world would need to be commissioning a nuclear station every day to make that target. The basic physics cannot be changed.

    • Boambee John says:


      Stu and I started (but did not finish) a discussion onnmoving from fossil to ruinables on the previous thread. I think some pounts are worth repeating here. It related to defining any sudden abandonment of current electric power supply systems.

      Since I think that the whole concept of grid scale energy based on solar, wind and batteries in their present state of development is a fantasy, my definition of “sudden” is any reduction in reliable supply before ruinables demonstrate that they are able to provide reliable, continuous, supply at all times and in all weather states – sunny, cloudy, night, day, at all wind states.

      For “abandonment”, I would say allowing the current capability to provide reliable, continuous supply to be reduced before solar, wind and batteries demonstrate that capability.

      Once the Australian East Coast fossil and hydro grid is not fully capable of maintaining supply in the absence of adequate ruinable systems, any further loss before new developments in solar wind and battery technology will constitute such sudden abandonment. Note that a major fossil plant in NSW is expected to close soon, and one in Victoria not long afterwards.

  • Neville says:

    Now even Duke Uni has cancelled Lomborg and he was to deliver a speech on UN based data and evidence. And Lomborg like Shellenberger, Koonin etc only wanted to quote UN /IPCC data about their so called Climate Change and how much wealthier everybody will be in another 50 years.

    He quotes the UN data that tells us that unmitigated CC will reduce each persons wealth from about 3.6 times more than today to 3.5 times more. What a catastrophe or a loss of 0.1. And he wanted to show the area burnt in the last OZ fires compared to the last century and apparently the students wouldn’t have been able to cope with so much information? Of course Shellenberger and Koonin etc also quote the same numbers.

    Here’s the article from Jo Nova based on Lomborg’s column from the Australian. I’ve said it before but the so called mitigation of their so called CAGW has to be the most expensive con trick in world history.

  • Neville says:

    So why do we need to have net zero emissions by 2040 or ’50 and how is this possible?
    Well Pres Biden the leader of the most powerful country tells us in this video that we are facing an existential threat for humans and he actually mentions this a number of times in a couple of minutes. He also tells us we can “feel this in our bones” , but I seem to have missed that feeling.
    I certainly understand the data since 1800, 1900, 1950, 1970, 1990 etc and of course the human race is today much healthier, wealthier and has a life expectancy of about 72 years. All 7.8 bn of us and that average is made up of Africa ( 64) China (76) wealthy countries like Australia ( 83) etc.
    And the Pres of the UN loves the EXIST….. word and always seems to use it in any number of interviews about SLR or whatever.
    But even if we get all our electricity ( mission impossible) from dirty, toxic S&W etc how does that help us with the remaining 70%+ ( at least) of our energy needs until 2050 or 2100?
    Don’t forget these loonies are telling us that the human race is threatened because of that extra 0.0065% of co2 in our atmosphere. Remember Dr Hansen and Bill McKibben etc ( org) tell us we must reduce co2 levels to a safe 350 ppm.
    So at present we have about 415 ppm less 350 ppm= 65 ppm and that’s about 0.0065% too much co2 in our atmosphere.
    But don’t worry because China, India+ developing countries are happily building hundreds of new coal power stns and couldn’t care less about any of Biden’s, delusional, stu-pid BS and fra-d.
    Any sane comments?

    • Boambee John says:


      “He also tells us we can “feel this in our bones”

      Biden is an old man, it’s probably arthritis.

  • Neville says:

    Here we have Boris Johnson and Corbyn clashing over their so called CAGW + emission reductions and just proves what a waste of space these people are and particularly Corbyn. Thankfully he lost everything at the last election and he should now listen to his brother and learn something.
    But Boris regularly tells us today that their so called CC is the greatest threat to humans and the planet, certainly a much greater threat than pandemics like CV-19. And he and Biden are the type of donkeys leading us into their dirty, toxic future of more S&W idiocy.

  • Pete S says:

    Very optimistic Don to think that our PM must know all this.

    • Neville says:

      Yes Pete S and I often worry about that point and wonder about our so called leaders ability to properly understand any of the data.
      Labor and Greens are completely clueless on the subject, but I always expect more from the Coalition, but perhaps that’s too optimistic in 2021? Who knows?

  • Bryan Roberts says:
    Welcome to water world. Before it sinks.

  • Neville says:

    Perhaps the EU countries are starting to wake up and we may soon see Gas generation labelled as OK and GREEN.
    I’ll believe it when I see it, because these donkeys are some of the most stu-pid people on the planet. But we can only live in hope.

  • Neville says:

    So how are some of their spooky stories about their so called CAGW holding up after 15+ years?
    Here’s a goody from their SMH in April 2005 and further nonsense from the Flannery donkey.

  • Neville says:

    Here’s the latest Mauna Loa co2 levels comparing FEB 2020- 414.34 ppm to FEB 2021- 416.75 ppm or an increase of 2.41 ppm in the last 12 months.
    And this was during a lock down from so many of the world economies and during the worst global pandemic since 1918.
    And so far we’ve seen an increase in co2 levels of about 16.75 ppm since Paris COP 21 in DEC 2015. That’s at least 2.5 ppm per year since DEC 2015.
    As I’ve said before China, India and developing countries are laughing all the way to their banks. Here’s the NOAA link for Mauna Loa.

  • Hasbeen says:

    One point that is ignored by all greens, & often even those who see the stupidity of renewables, is that windmills have a useful life of a maximum of 20 years. Considering this the suggested number required to replace fossil fuel generation is much greater than realised.

    Every windmill existing today, & virtually any built in the next ten years would be dead by 2050.

    Any generating useful power in 2050 would have to be built after 2030. The number required to be built annually after 2030 thus becomes much more massive & 5% of that massive fleet would have to be replaced annually, just to tread water with capacity.

    This is totally unaffordable on going, but kids & politicians with no math will only see this when the lights go out.

    • Boambee John says:

      Considering also the environmental problem of disposing of old turbine blades (and also the massive concrete and steel foundations for wind generators) there should be an environmental levy placed on each one as it is being built, to pay for later disposal.

      Similarly for solar panels. Far from being subsidised, there should also be a disposal levy placed on them.

    • Neville says:

      Yes Hasbeen and I’ve been telling our blog donkeys that S&W are the dirtiest most toxic form of energy on the planet.
      And I always remind them that S&W only last about 20 years and the entire toxic mess has to be placed in landfill forever.
      And the area covered by this unreliable toxic mess is about 500 times the area of a good RELIABLE, BASE-LOAD power stn that lasts about 50 years. Add up the monster environmental coverage disaster + the landfill toxic mess every 20 years and you can easily see the disaster we are causing.
      But these crazy LW donkeys couldn’t care less.

  • Neville says:

    More from Jo Nova about the wonderful GREENING of the planet because of the extra co2.
    And yet the silly donkeys are trying to remove this life giving gas from our atmosphere and are willing to wreck the above ground environment as well as burying the entire TOXIC S&W mess underground every 20 years as well. What could possibly go wrong ?

  • Neville says:

    More on NOAA’s data ( all stations) on GLOBAL co2 increase DEC 2019 to DEC 2020 and the increase over the last 12 months was even higher than Mauna Loa.
    Mauna Loa was 2.41 ppm increase and GLOBAL co2 increase was 2.74 ppm.

  • Neville says:

    There seems to be recent study swings in world population trends by 2100 and now some studies estimate pop could drop from a high later this century to under 10 bn by 2100.
    But African countries and India seem to be the countries with by far the highest increases in pop by 2064 and by 2100.
    See graph for some countries at the link, but those estimates from a few years ago of 11 bn + by 2100 now seem to be too high. Who knows?
    So where is their climate crisis/ apocalypse etc or the Biden donkey’s claims of a looming EXISTENTIAL THREAT ? What a mob of jokers.

  • Boambee John says:

    Strange. Stu is cinvinced that the political momentum for ruinables is unstoppable, but is unwilling to comment on the feasibility of their being adequate for the task.

    The Mr Micawber policy? Live in hope that “something will turn up?

    • Neville says:

      Yes BJ and why would any sane govts or their leaders choose the dirtiest, most toxic form of energy and wreck their environments?

      • Boambee John says:


        I saw an article suggesting that the US will use diplomatic and trade strategy to push through “carbon free” energy systems by 2035. This would include the major “polluters”, China and India.

        The sting in the tail is that the proposed solution, while partially based on ruinables (no more than 35%of total output) would principally be nuclear, with modular reactors and a big research push on fusion.

        Not sure how our local ratbags will swallow that!

  • Neville says:

    BJ I’m not sure that it’s true, but if Biden, Harris, AOC etc are behind this I’d be very surprised.
    It seems to require far too much intellectual depth than the stu-pid Biden+DEMS have shown so far. But if it’s true and Nuclear does become a major part of their energy mix in the USA and elsewhere I’ll be very surprised. Who knows, but surely that should allow them to immediately drop the Ruinables disaster today and have little impact on the underground and above ground environment forever?
    But I’ll believe it when I see it, because L W donkeys have shown ZIP ability to follow logic and reason up to now.
    Then again perhaps silly Biden feels this in his bones?

  • Neville says:

    Nick Cater from the Menzies Centre has recently produced polling showing Aussies are moving to a more sensible attitude to Nuclear energy.
    And even the LEFT Essential polling found more support for Nuclear in a 2019 Guardian article.

    “Australians’ support for nuclear plants rising – but most don’t want to live near one.
    Essential poll finds 44% of Australians support nuclear power plants and 40% oppose them”.

  • Neville says:

    Here’s a part of Michael Shellenberger’s testimony before Congress last week. Just read the facts and shudder that we would even consider extending this clueless S&W disaster.
    And just proves the insanity of installing the dirty, toxic S&W disaster in the first place. And clueless batteries are just more super expensive, insane Mickey mouse fairy tales.

    “Testimony before the United States House of Representatives
    Committee on Energy and Commerce
    For a hearing on “Power Struggle: Examining the 2021 Texas Grid Failure”
    Written statement submitted by:
    Michael D. Shellenberger
    Founder and President Environmental Progress

    March 24, 2021


    “Shellenberger: California’s retail electricity prices rose eight times faster than the nationwide average in the 10 years between January 2011 and December 2020, due to its increased use of variable energy sources. This occurred despite falling prices for natural gas, which provides the biggest share of the state’s electricity production. Today, California households pay 55 percent more than the national average per kilowatt-hour of electricity. In 2020, California’s electricity prices rose 7.5 percent, compared to just 0.25 percent in the other 49 states.

    None of this is unique to the U.S. Germany, which has deployed more variable renewable energy than any other nation in Europe, has used various regulatory mechanisms and subsidies to prevent utilities from going bankrupt, and its electricity prices rose 50 percent in the 15 years after 2007. In the first half of 2020, German electricity prices were 43 percent higher than the European average.

    It is not the case that energy storage would have helped in Texas. Energy usage was so extreme above available capacity that even a large amount of batteries would have been drained only hours into an event lasting for four days. Instead, batteries would’ve had to be saved for weeks or even months only to dump their power in single-use discharge, a business model that cannot justify the cost of building and charging the batteries in the first place. Batteries must operate a very large number of times to pay for themselves.

    Part of the problem in Texas was that wind and solar farms set the price for the rest of the system. The total number of negative price hours, whereby power plants had to pay people to take unneeded electricity, grew dramatically between 2019 and 2020, just as they did in California during the same period, and have grown since. Some analysts claim those negative prices are a good thing because they are a market signal to buy batteries. But batteries help with minutes of electricity not days and would thus not have helped prevent the outages in Texas.

    The system in Texas in the end was based on the idea that a greater number of unreliable energy sources would add up to greater reliability. The idea in Texas was that electricity price spikes would somehow result in electricity generators, but there was a collective action problem. The monies and the costs were divided up into thousands of different parties, none with sufficient interest to guarantee the whole system’s reliability.

    We should be grateful to Texas and California for dramatically reminding us that less reliable elements of a system make the system, all else being equal, less reliable. Adding transmission and storage to systems that rely increasingly on variable energy sources will raise electricity’s costs, and
    those higher costs threaten, in turn, the grid investments we need to ensure resilience to extreme weather”.

  • Neville says:

    Here’s Shellenberger’s FEB 2021 testimony to the House of Reps on farm+ forestry data/facts over the last 100+ years and even the ongoing recent improvements as well.
    Just about every paragraph yields new data and information that the majority of people I meet are unaware of and some become very hostile if you try to press the point.
    But Dr Rosling also found that at times the most ignorant people are the so called tertiary educated groups. It’s called confirmation bias and really annoys lefties when anyone tries to enlighten them about their so called climate crisis or their stu-pid existential threat or apocalypse or so called CAGW.
    I know this is a long read but it is worth the effort and he has links+ refs to support his testimony. Of course Lomborg has been documenting this data for decades and now Dr Koonin has joined them in their fight for common sense.

  • spangled drongo says:

    2050 targets achieved with slave labour are very feasible:

    But with incredible hypocrisy attached.

  • spangled drongo says:

    Even if the 2050 targets are feasible [which is a huge if] under reasonable and realistic assumptions for climate sensitivity, the social cost of carbon may effectively be zero or even negative.

    IOW, these targets are completely unnecessary:

    • Boambee John says:


      The only way those targets are feasible with current technology and scientific knowledge (which is not the same as “the science”), is using nuclear power.

    • Neville says:

      SD thanks for the latest BS and fra-d about their so called SCC.
      I would back Dr Michaels to provide an honest summary, just like Dr Curry, Dr Christy, Dr Spencer, Prof Happer, Dr Lindzen, Dr McKitrick , etc.
      How anyone could fall for the DEMs and Biden garbage about any of this is beyond a joke and the Chinese etc will be very happy to rake in the dough and laugh at our expense.

  • Neville says:

    More left wing extremism from the UK climate con merchants. This would be what we’d expect from Stalin’s USSR or Hiltler’s Germany and China in 2021. Except even China has different priorities today and are not interested in enforcing the use of more toxic, clueless S&W energy. See the story and link.

    “London, 30 March: The Global Warming Policy Forum (GWPF) has condemned the chairman of the UK’s Climate Change Committee for demanding that a powerful group of unelected officials should enforce Net Zero policies, giving them the power to overrule Parliament”.

    “At a green investment event last week, Lord Deben praised the government’s climate policy objectives but referred to the delivery process as “crap” and demanded the creation of a new “powerful body” to force the private sector to act on policy. (Utility Week, 29 March 2021.)

    Lord Deben said:

    “I want to see a delivery system either within or outside the Department for Business, Energy & Industrial Strategy (BEIS). We need somebody doing the delivery direction […] You need to have a very clear and powerful body saying what has to happen, these are the priorities and get on with it. Unless we have that this whole thing will be policy strong, policy powerful and policy rich but delivery poor.”

    Lord Deben’s remarks are a clear admission that in spite of a vast web of subsidies and regulations forcing businesses and even the military towards low carbon technologies, these technologies and policies are so lacking in real attraction that progress towards Net Zero is faltering.

    A BBC survey published on Monday revealed that the vast majority of people in Scotland are not adopting low-carbon technologies and options because they “are financially out of reach for most Scots.”

    Lord Deben’s answer to the public reluctance to embrace costly behaviour changes and green technologies is authoritarian and undemocratic: “You need to have a very clear and powerful body saying what has to happen”. Critics might reply that the United Kingdom already has such a body in the democratically accountable Parliament, and that Lord Deben’s demands are an attempt to circumvent that accountability”.

    GWPF director Benny Peiser, said:

    “Lord Deben’s suggestion that Parliament should be bypassed by an all-powerful Committee of Climate Safety is repulsively anti-democratic and also an admission of policy failure.”

    “Deben’s authoritarian proposal confirms the recent warning by Deutsche Bank that Net Zero policies threaten to result in a “noticeable loss of welfare and jobs” and are unlikely to succeed without “a certain degree of eco-dictatorship.”

  • Neville says:

    More here from the Flannery donkey’s BS and severe loss of memory, when it suits him. And yet stu-pid L W fools still hang on his every word and would continue to support his lunacy and dopey ideas.

  • Neville says:

    Remember those numerous yarns about Kyoto cherry trees flowering earlier because of their GLOBAL warming nonsense?
    Willis looked up the data and found a very close correlation between flowering and the more recent population increase of the city. Big surprise NOT. So the UHI effect rules once again, check out his graph at the link.

  • Neville says:

    China seems to be relishing its position of strength and could wreck Biden and Boris’s climate mitigation BS and COP 26 later this year.
    Let’s hope that they do wreck their garbage and COP 26 and then stay out of it forever.

  • Neville says:

    It looks like India will be unlikely to commit to net zero by 2060 and let’s hope they also have the strength to tell the Biden donkey to buzz off.

    • Boambee John says:


      Apparently Biden plans to push them to change, using trade and diplomatic power.

      WW III, here we come.

  • Neville says:

    This latest GWPF survey shows the UK public are abysmally ignorant about their so called climate change data.
    And with dopey extremists like Labor, Dems, Greens etc and so called leaders like the Binden and Boris donkeys it’s little wonder that people have ZIP knowledge or understanding.
    It seems like everyone is happy to waste endless trillions $ on completely fra-dulent data and for ZERO change by 2100 and beyond.

  • Neville says:

    Germany’s NAT Audit Office finds a very real EXISTENTIAL threat that their country should worry about.
    And it’s Germany’s reliance on too much so called Green S&W idiocy and a failure to source more reliable base-load power for their future needs. Like RELIABLE Nuclear, Gas and Coal energy.
    Big surprise NOT, just do the sums and then tell the other world leaders. No need to tell China, India and developing countries, they’ve worked it out for themselves.

  • spangled drongo says:

    Just how many lies have to be told to justify the 2050 targets.

    In spite of the fact that corals are most diverse in the tropics, our true believers prefer to make it up as they go:

  • Neville says:

    More on the environmental disaster caused by offshore wind farms in the UK. Yet these zombies still believe these environmental disasters are helping to save their planet?
    And the world still intends to waste endless trillions $ on this corruption and fra-d in the decades ahead? And all for ZERO change?

  • Neville says:

    Gosh more evidence/data that it’s NOT co2 that’s causing so called global warming since 1950.
    The SP holds 89% of the planet’s ice and yet according to this recent NATURE study it hasn’t warmed for the last 70 years.
    And Willis has looked at the USA 48 state ( minus Alaska and Hawaii) temps since 2000 and found only a slight cooling trend. Here’s that recent study.,atmospheric%20concentration%20of%20greenhouse%20gases.

    • Chris Warren says:

      What sort of brain dead stupidity is this.

      Of course remaining ice does not warm up as other parts melt. The extra heat does not rise the temperature of remaining ice because it produces warmer melt-water.

      • Boambee John says:

        I see that our climate scientist Chrissy has branched out into thermodynamics. Needs more precision, however. Is it 0.09 degrees per day? Month? Year? Decade?

        Is this new skill in addition to your specialisation (so far not specified) in climate science?

    • Chris Warren says:

      Just how mischievous is Neville.

      Any one with half a brain knows that the air over south pole land is warming and you can see this from Spencer’s data which shows a trend of 0.09C warming.

      So our idiots try to distract attention to land (which is ice – and stays frozen until it melts).

      Denialists just peddle fake news.

      • spangled drongo says:

        Our blith thinks that a current warming trend of 0.02c for the lower troposphere of the south pole which has an average temperature of ~ -50c and where ice is increasing, is something we should financially destroy ourselves over.

        What personal sacrifices are you making to rectify that situation, blith?

      • spangled drongo says:

        Amazing how the climate religious create alarm out of nothing.

        A paper published on 30th Oct 2015 in the Journal of Glaciology by NASA researcher, Jay Zwally, reported an overall net gain of ice accumulation on Antarctica:

        “The good news is that Antarctica is not currently contributing to sea-level rise, but is taking 0.23 millimeters per year away.”

  • Neville says:

    Here Willis asks whether the US is burning up?

  • spangled drongo says:

    Well waddya know? If we used the nuclear solution in these targets we would solve so many other problems too.

    We’ve known this for nearly a century but the watermelons have been in denial all that time.

    Good to see the Israelis making a “rediscovery”:

    • Stu says:

      I am not a gerontologist or a nuclear medicine specialist but that paper looks a little flaky. If you look at the associated map the very small proportion of USA shown as high background is also quite low in population. Second the difference between low and high is not very great. Third there is no distinction drawn between natural background radiation and that released by for example nuclear power creation. Fourth it is a classic huge jump from correlation to causation without any justification. Fifth, at least one of the authors has direct involvement with nuclear industry. Sixthly The greatest area of the US according to the map is the lowest radiation counties yet that is where the greatest concentration of nuclear fuel processing and power generation occurs. Seventh, that area is also the heaviest concentration of industry which would probably explain a cancer difference compared with the sparsely settled environmentally clean and supposedly “high radiation areas”. In short the article quoted is “stunning” but not for the reasons quoted by SD.

      • spangled drongo says:

        Stu, radiation is natural and found everywhere – it comes from outer space, the air we breathe, and the earth we tread. It’s even in our bodies; naturally occurring radioactive elements in our bones irradiate us on average 5000 times per second. Sleeping next to someone gives us a much higher radiation dose than living close to a nuclear power station – both of which are harmless. The world has known for a long time that radiation saves lives. It cures cancer and other life-threatening conditions

        In Ramsar (Iran), residents can receive doses of up to 260 mSv per year, about 100 times the global average, due to naturally occurring radioactive elements. However, there is no evidence of any adverse health effects in these areas. Often the reverse. Many of these areas actually have higher radiation levels than many parts of the evacuation zones around Chernobyl and Fukushima.

        It’s good to see some scientists spreading facts for a change instead of alarmism.

        You need to get out more and broaden your tiny mind.

        • Stu says:

          You miss the point entirely. Your powers of comprehension need sharpening. Of course there is radiation everywhere, including in the bricks in your house. That silly article you quote was trying to make another point badly. As for your Ramsar story you might want to compare with the Kakadu folk and their long knowledge of “sickness country”. You really should find a better source for your radiation stories. Yes medical radiation can save lives, but it does it by focusing on and destroying particular cells in the body. Trying to portray it as a life giving force is to say the least misguided. You might like to look up the story of the death of Marie Curie from radiation induced leukaemia. Next you will be telling us not to fear nuclear warheads!

          • spangled drongo says:

            Who’s really missing the point here, stueyluv?

            Do you possibly think that when mankind have been living with background radiation for the total length of their evolution, that it isn’t part of their basic structure?

            It’s unbelievable that you would naturally assume that Kakadu sickness is a negative result of this natural radiation yet you ignore science that says otherwise.

            Do you possibly think, like almost everything in life, excess is not to our advantage also applies?

            You little climate pansies need to wake up to the fact that what doesn’t kill you only makes you stronger.

          • Boambee John says:

            I see that Stu’s knowledge of radiation is even less than his knowledge of power generation.

            Flying increases radiation exposure Stu. Are airline pilots dropping dead all over the world?

          • Stu says:

            Do wake up guys and leave your natural tendency to contradiction just for the sake of it behind for once. The point I made was that the “science” paper quoted seems poorly constructed and its conclusions questionable. Of course background radiation has been around for ever and yes if you fly at 40,000 feet you get more etc etc. But to leap to the position that the study proves radiation is a wonderful thing so let’s all have more of it is patently absurd. Did either of you actually go and read the full paper, not just the slick summation in the United with Israel rag? Probably not. Oh and by the way the next time you have an X ray note how much trouble the dentist or radiographer goes to in avoiding exposure, and how thick the walls of radiation oncology units are. They don’t seem to accept your hypothesis that soaking up more than the regular background is a good thing, healthy even, hah.

          • spangled drongo says:

            Stueyluv sez “leave your natural tendency to contradiction just for the sake of it behind for once.”

            And then proceeds to contradict just for the sake of it.

            The point I made was that humans daily experience 100 times the recommended dose of radiation and not only survive but possibly survive better than those who don’t.

            That has been known since the 1930s and is born out in numerous other studies.

            Whereas this paper is being quite modest in reiterating their claims.

            To claim that we “leap to the position that the study proves radiation is a wonderful thing so let’s all have more of it” is just typical of so many of your ridiculous, unfounded claims.

            Stop waffling.

            And try absorbing the science for a change.

          • spangled drongo says:

            Like when they found that higher background radiation levels lead to lower levels of lung, pancreatic and colon cancers in men and women as well as lower rates of brain and bladder cancers in men and that with higher radiation levels, life expectancy increased, it is simply confirming what has generally been known for a long time but has been buried by the watermelons who choose to deny the great advantages of nuclear power for their own political reasons.

            The team used the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s radiation dose calculator, retrieved data about background radiation from the entire country, and compared it with cancer rate data and life expectancy.

            “All in all, it is reasonable to suggest that a radiation threshold does exist, yet it is higher than the upper limit of the natural background radiation levels in the U.S.,” the researchers wrote, concluding that it is time to revise the apparently outdated thinking that all radiation is bad.

          • Boambee John says:


            “point I made was that the “science” paper quoted seems poorly constructed and its conclusions questionable.”

            Thank you for your scientific advice on the quality of the paper. Should we add nuclear physics to your other scientific qualifications?

            Unfortunately you seem to have missed the subtle difference between background radiation and the high powered sources used in some medical applications.

            Your knee jerk reaction is typical of your reaction to anything you don’t understand. Your attitude to climate change is similar.

  • spangled drongo says:

    Great to see the detailed, predictive “science” these targets are based upon:

  • Stu says:

    BJ “ Thank you for your scientific advice on the quality of the paper. Should we add nuclear physics to your other scientific qualifications?”. Try again. You don’t need to be a nuclear physicist to comment on the basic methodology of a science paper. Nowhere in that paper do I see any justification for the conclusions beyond correlation of the figures. And if you look at the “background radiation” data they quote you will find the conclusion flaky. Not the actual data, but the way they use it. But it is an interesting map. Have you even read the paper?

    “ Unfortunately you seem to have missed the subtle difference between background radiation and the high powered sources used in some medical applications.” Are you really suggesting there is a “subtle’ difference there?

    And finally back on your hobby horse of climate change. Give it a break, it is tiresome.

    • Boambee John says:


      “Nowhere in that paper do I see any justification for the conclusions beyond correlation of the figures.”

      Your favourite climate change doesn’t even have correlation between temperature and CO2 levels in the atmosphere. Strangely you don’t see any reason to doubt your faith in that.

      “you will find the conclusion flaky. Not the actual data, but the way they use it.”

      Do you have any self-awareness at all?

      ” Are you really suggesting there is a “subtle’ difference there?”

      No, I was highlighting your swift segue from background radiation levels to two completely unrelated examples oh higher intensity radiation use.

      “And finally back on your hobby horse of climate change. Give it a break, it is tiresome.”

      It might have escaped your attention, but the theme of this thread is an unachievable target for “nett zero”, purely hased on hysteria about climate change. The sub discussion followed on from whether nuclear might be an option to meet the target. Sleepy Joe Biden (or whoever is pulling his strings) seems to think that it is.

      • Stu says:

        But I note there is a certain synergy between your acceptance of high radiation figures and high CO2 ppm. Should we draw some conclusion from that? Given that, where do you stand on the evidence spectrum when we look at the acceptance of belief with no evidence (religious faith) versus no acceptance of scientific fact (climate change) with similar conviction?

        • Boambee John says:


          Were you drinking when you composed this? Give it up. This is even more pathetic than your usual drivel.

          By definition, background radiation is lower than the high rate medical examples you cited. As for CO2 levels, if you genuinely believe that they are an issue, then you have two choices. Either continue with solar, wind and batteries, hoping for an unexpected technical break through, or go nuclear.

          The first of those is “belief with no evidence”, the second is scientific fact.

          • Stu says:

            “ By definition, background radiation is lower than the high rate medical examples you cited. ”

          • Boambee John says:


            So what was your point in citing them? A compulsion to be contrarian?

            Nothing to say on providing reliable, continuous, electricity on the way to nett zero? Still working on the Micawber principle? Or the ostrich principle?

        • spangled drongo says:

          BJ, is our stueyluv incredible or what?

          For someone who has never supplied any honest empirical evidence to support his religious belief in man made climate change to then say we refuse to believe his “scientific fact”- free claims of catastrophe requires a very abnormal attitude, to say the least.

          Any “evidence” he has produced has always been subject to:

          “You can prove almost anything with the evidence of a small enough segment of time. How often, in any search for truth, the answer of the minute is positive, the answer of the hour qualified, the answers of the year contradictory!” — Edwin Way Teale

  • spangled drongo says:

    A great statement about “scientific fact” from Richard Feynman:

    “Scientific knowledge is a body of statements of varying degrees of certainty—some most unsure, some nearly sure, but none absolutely certain.”

    But when that same “scientific fact” comes from computer modelling rather than measurable evidence, how much further does this devalue already doubtful knowledge?

    • Neville says:

      Yes SD and the first billion humans alive on the planet required at least 200,000 years and then their life expectancy was under 40 and everyone was poor and sick. See Rosling’s BBC video 1810 to 2010.
      But in just the last 50 years Africa has added another 1 bn people ( total now 1.34 bn) and their average age is about 64 and they have increasing health and wealth and increased urbanisation.
      Yet in 1970 their total pop was 363 mil and life exp was about 47. So where is their EXISTENTIAL threat or climate crisis etc ? And in 1970 co2 levels were way under Dr Hansen’s safe level of 350 ppm.

  • Neville says:

    Wonderful news that the Turnbull nut has been dumped from his job advising the NSW govt.
    He spoke out about new coal mines in the Hunter and all the new REAL jobs this would mean for their future.
    He also favours the use of the dirty, toxic, dilute S&W disasters that would wreck the above and below ground environment forever.
    Why any govt would appoint such a religious extremist is a mystery.

    • Stu says:

      “ Wonderful news that the Turnbull nut has been dumped from his job advising the NSW govt.”

      It appears Turnbull is far brighter, far more accomplished and far more successful than you so it is a big jump for you to label him a nut. Certainly he does not subscribe to the anti science agenda of News corp which aligns completely with your position and hence he is a continuing target of the News propaganda machine. You are in “great” company.

      • Boambee John says:


        Turnbull’s greatest skills are in “failing upwards” and touting his own assessment of his brilliance.

        If only alarmists had an actual “science agenda”, they might be able to offer cogent arguments, rather than hand waving hysteria.

    • spangled drongo says:

      Wow! Great news Neville!

      Yes, hypos like stu and mal are all dowattisaynotwattidoers.

  • Neville says:

    Interesting comments from today’s Ray Hadley show on 2 GB. I wonder if Turnbull will respond?

    “Ray Hadley has accused former Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull of “making a narrative to suit his own argument” for his opposition to a planned expansion of a coal mine in the Upper Hunter region.

    Mr Turnbull and his wife Lucy put in a submission to the government about the Mount Pleasant Optimisation Project, citing concerns about poor air quality in the region”.

    “The Turnbulls own a property north of the site.

    “Their submission quoted two air quality readings on 1 and 8 March 2021, and described the 2333 postcode as having the “worst air quality in the state”.

    Ray Hadley has revealed the data as “anomalies”.

    “Unfortunately for Mr Turnbull, Mr Turnbull has been ill-advised, or loose with the truth, because on the 1 March 2021, the air quality, varied from -6 up to 113, and the only hour it reached this ridiculous figure, was the hour between 7-8pm at night.

    “We have spoken to experts who tell us that’s an anomaly.

    “At worst it’s a lie, at best it’s a bloke not doing any research and making a narrative to suit his own argument.

    “I am happy today to expose the bloke on the program for the nonsense he said to the Department of Planning.

    “The former PM is guilty by omission.

    “He has taken a rubbery, out of context figure to suit his own purposes, simply disgraceful that either through imbecility, or a deliberate act, he has used figures that are an obvious anomaly to support his flawed argument.”

  • Boambee John says:

    Some points for Stu about his favourite “Big Batteries”, from a commenter (research scientist) at Catallaxy.

    “processing of Australian lithium ore is messy. It has a high temperature step which requires coal or gas at about 1075 C. Then the aqueous extraction step requires acid or alkali, thereby producing a large amount of acidic or alkaline residue – up to 100 tonnes per tonne of extracted lithium. You can see why it’d be easier to do in China.”

  • Stu says:

    BJ “ If only alarmists had an actual “science agenda”, they might be able to offer cogent arguments, rather than hand waving hysteria.”

    But come on now you have to admit that the “alarmist” line of thinking is winning the argument. Why else do you need to keep banging on about it, when your “ reasoning” only exists in backwaters like this space. Who is the “believer”?

    • Boambee John says:


      As you have previously suggested, the “alarmists” are winning the political battle. That is not the same as winning the technical battle, or doing the right thing. But please continue to keep your head buried in the sand, Mr Micawber.

      You continue to ignore the reality that solar, wind and batteries in their present state of development cannot provide reliable, continuous, electricity supply. Do you accept that, or are you a denialist?

      Once a couple more fossil fuel plants close down, in the next few years, that reality will become quite obvious to all but the most extreme deniers of engineering reality. Then the political climate is likely to change rapidly.

      How many times now have you declared victory, then returned to fight on?

      • Stu says:

        We have been down this track before. I am not saying either side is right or wrong. I am saying your side is losing (has lost) the argument. But your ego will not let you acknowledge that fact, instead you cling to the “technical battle”, just playing semantics. Admit it you are just a good old fashioned reactionary.

        “ Once a couple more fossil fuel plants close down, in the next few years, that reality will become quite obvious to all but the most extreme deniers of engineering reality. Then the political climate is likely to change rapidly”

        Yes they are reactionary words alright. Engineering is not a static thing, or we would still be using steam trains or maybe even horses.

        • Boambee John says:


          You still rest your hopes on the political victory which you (again) claim is yours (but you also acknowledge that you do not know which side is actually correct).

          Engineering facts are indifferent to politics. If you actually bothered to read my comments, and still had some memory, you would know that I have previously accepted that the political battle has been lost (at least until there are some more South Australian style blackouts).

          Still, since you mention engineering realities, I notice that you are still avoiding answering the question I have asked you many times. Do you accept that solar, wind and batteries, in their current state of development, are NOT able to provide reliable, continuous, electricity? Simple question, even you should be able to answer it, based on the available record. Or does the answer contradict your favoured “narrative”?

          On a separate but related matter, have you any comment on the negative externalities of lithium processing I mentioned yesterday? Or does that contradict the “narrative” too? Heaven forfend that you acknowledge any “negative externalities” of ruinables!

          • Stu says:

            “ You still rest your hopes on the political victory which you (again) claim is yours (but you also acknowledge that you do not know which side is actually correct).”. Are you sitting down, paying attention, no distractions? Yes, I say the science says we have a major problem and it is not natural variation. But for purposes of argument, just so you can say yes or no, I am saying, forget which is right or wrong and admit that yes the “do nothing people’ (that is you) have lost the argument. The world is still being killed by excess CO2 production but the world over, governments and science and science are working to reduce emissions to net zero, eventually. Now you tell me how your lot are doing in terms of anybody significant listening to your songbook.

          • Boambee John says:


            You clearly have reading comprehension difficulties as well as a memory problem. I have long accepted that, for the moment, the political battle is lost. That is not the same as the technical battle. Reality ignores the haverings of politicians.

            Again I ask, do you accept that solar, wind and batteries, in their current state of development, are NOT able to provide reliable, continuous, electricity? A simple Yes or No will be adequate.

            You are still ignoring the lithium issue, is it too hard for you to accept a scientific reality?

            As for your “science says we have a major problem and it is not natural variation”, and the “world is still being killed by excess CO2 production”, these are scientifically contested issues being fought by alarmists in a political campaign, because they can’t win the scientific argument. The apparent success of the political campaign does not alter scientific reality.

            Apart from your hysterical (in both senses) comments about matters nuclear recently, have you even noticed that the US seems to be pushing for nuclear power (with a limited level of ruinables as the only way to get to nett zero. I am on board with that, even if gerbil worming is actually a consignment of geriatric bootmakers. Do you support nuclear power as a solution?

          • Stu says:

            Bj you said “ Again I ask, do you accept that solar, wind and batteries, in their current state of development, are NOT able to provide reliable, continuous, electricity? A simple Yes or No will be adequate.”

            And the answer right now is No, so what? Apart from the ACT which also has copious access to hydro show me anywhere in Aus where they are trying to do what you say TODAY. Plus Engineering and technology is not at a standstill and is not a zero sum game. Look t history and how fast the transition from horse and buggy to motor vehicle took place in USA and Europe. Not long, such is the appeal of new technologies.

            As for Lithium etc, again so what? There are negatives with all forms of power and manufacture, some like batteries and EV’s come out better than gas guzzling. And the transition to electric vehicles is being driven by more than legislation and it is becoming an economic game. Start getting your head around driving one and while you are it, enjoy driving while you can. The age of autonomous self driving vehicles is coming fast. The payoff in terms of reduced death and injury on the roads, which will exceed the gains made with seat belts and air bags etc, means that in a relatively short time it will become mandatory. You will need to go to a race track, or third world country, to “drive”.

          • Boambee John says:


            “And the answer right now is No, so what?”

            Finally an acknowledgement of reality. However, you miss the point. It is not what is being attempted that matters, it is what is going to happen in the near future. When a major fossil fuel plant closes in each of NSW and Victoria in the next few years, there will no longer be adequate back-up for windless nights. Then the politics will get interesting.

            On that subject, I note that you again avoid the nuclear question.

            “Apart from the ACT which also has copious access to hydro show me anywhere in Aus where they are trying to do what you say TODAY.”

            Pedantically accurate, as South Australia went down that path some years ago. That went so well when the Victorian interconnector went off-line, didn’t it?

            “Engineering and technology is not at a standstill and is not a zero sum game. Look t history and how fast the transition from horse and buggy to motor vehicle took place”

            Short in geological terms, but decades in reality. Engineers have been working on solar, wind and batteries for decades, but Nirvana remains elusive. Meanwhile, fossil fuel plants are not being replaced to cover the period until it is achieved.

            “As for Lithium etc, again so what? There are negatives with all forms of power”

            Good to see you so relaxed about the negative externalities of your favoured technologies. Hypocrisy, thy name is alarmist.

            “And the transition to electric vehicles is being driven by more than legislation and it is becoming an economic game.”

            Yet you accept that your favoured power sources are not even adequate for current demand, much less for an expanding EV fleet?

            You would be worth a chapter of your own in the next edition of Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds.

  • Stu says:

    Regarding CO2.

    “For the first time in recorded history, the concentration of atmospheric carbon dioxide, or CO2, was measured at more than 420 parts per million at the Mauna Loa Observatory on the Big Island of Hawaii. It’s a disconcerting milestone in the human-induced warming of the planet, around the halfway point on our path toward doubling preindustrial CO2 levels.
    Pace of climate change shown in new report has humanity on ‘suicidal’ path, U.N. leader warns
    The research station, at an elevation of 11,135 feet on the summit of a picturesque volcano, has been monitoring the weather and chemistry of the atmosphere continuously since the 1950s. Its location allows it to sample some of the purest air available, providing scientists an untainted representation of how humans are irreversibly influencing climate systems.
    When the station began collecting CO2 measurements in the late 1950s, atmospheric CO2 concentration sat at around 315 parts per million. On Saturday, the daily average was pegged at 421.21 parts per million — the first time in human history that number has been so high. Previously, it had never exceeded 420 parts per million.
    “We’re completely certain that the increase in CO2 is warming the planet,” Kate Marvel, an associate research scientist at Columbia University, wrote in an email. “I’m even more certain CO2 causes global heating than I am that smoking causes cancer. The world is already more than 2 [degrees Fahrenheit] warmer than it was before the Industrial Revolution.”
    In addition to the temperature increase, a warmer atmosphere supports more instances of drought in some areas and flooding in others, along with stronger hurricanes and typhoons and the potential for more storms to rapidly intensify in dangerous, unpredictable ways.
    “CO2 accumulates in the atmosphere,” Zeke Hausfather, a climate scientist at the Breakthrough Institute in California, wrote in an email. “The amount of warming that the world is experiencing is a result of all of our emissions since the industrial revolution — not just our emissions in the last year.”
    He noted that’s why CO2 levels at Mauna Loa continued climbing and setting records despite a brief, dramatic reduction in global emissions stemming from the coronavirus pandemic. Emissions have since returned to near pre-pandemic levels.
    Data obtained from glacial ice cores indicates that modern-day CO2 levels are higher than at any point in at least the past 800,000 years.

    But don’t worry Neville, the population is growing, all good eh!

    Article By
    Matthew Cappucci and
    Jason Samenow. Washington Post
    April 6, 2021 at 6:59 a.m. GMT+10

    • spangled drongo says:

      After providing us with all that wisdom stu, like, er, “We’re completely certain that the increase in CO2 is warming the planet,” Kate Marvel, an associate research scientist at Columbia University, wrote in an email. “I’m even more certain CO2 causes global heating than I am that smoking causes cancer. The world is already more than 2 [degrees Fahrenheit] warmer than it was before the Industrial Revolution.”

      So now give us the science that explains why it was warmer during the Holocene [and earlier] when temperatures were higher than now with much lower CO2.

      If you can’t do that you [and they] are just blithering.

      • Stu says:

        “ So now give us the science that explains why it was warmer during the Holocene [and earlier] when temperatures were higher than now with much lower CO2.”. Go and do some reading. The fact that temperatures were claimed to be higher back then with much lower CO2 is the canary in the coal mine. That is the warning about future temperatures we are headed towards. But don’t you worry, you will certainly be dead.

        • spangled drongo says:

          As usual, when I ask our stu for evidence he fails dismally. “go and do some reading” he sez.

          I have been, stueyluv, and in the last 40 years have not been able to find anything other than Nat Var going back millions of years. But if you have, why are you so reluctant to tell us?

          It’s no wonder we have to conclude that you are simply a true believing catastropharian that refuses to see that we have never had it so good.

  • spangled drongo says:

    Stu, even if you manage to come up with any evidence that CO2 actually does warm the earth, do you ever remember even your true believer mates admitting to the rapid logarithmic diminution effect of CO2?

    This logarithmic effect is an inconvenient fact for Global Warming advocates and alarmists, nonetheless it is well understood within the climate science community. It is certainly not much discussed. This diminution effect is probably the reason there was no runaway greenhouse warming caused by CO2 in earlier eons when CO2 levels were known to be at levels of several thousands ppmv.

  • Neville says:

    Another new study that ties solar variability to the onset of decadal la nina events . Who knows the entire or precise mechanism but energy from the Sun does ultimately drive our climate system.

    And over decades, centuries and thousands of years energy is stored in the oceans and oscillations change and of course over time our climate also changes. Sometimes we have more agreeable climate (since end of the LIA) and life + humans + new tech can flourish.

    See link and summary of the study.

    “New study ties solar variability to the onset of decadal La Nina events”

    Authors apply a 22-year solar clock to find an elusive correlation


    Research News

    “A new study shows a correlation between the end of solar cycles and a switch from El Nino to La Nina conditions in the Pacific Ocean, suggesting that solar variability can drive seasonal weather variability on Earth.

    “If the connection outlined in the journal Earth and Space Science holds up, it could significantly improve the predictability of the largest El Nino and La Nina events, which have a number of seasonal climate effects over land. For example, the southern United States tends to be warmer and drier during a La Nina, while the northern U.S. tends to be colder and wetter.

    “Energy from the Sun is the major driver of our entire Earth system and makes life on Earth possible,” said Scott McIntosh, a scientist at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and co-author of the paper. “Even so, the scientific community has been unclear on the role that solar variability plays in influencing weather and climate events here on Earth. This study shows there’s reason to believe it absolutely does and why the connection may have been missed in the past.”

    The study was led by Robert Leamon at the University of Maryland-Baltimore County, and it is also co-authored by Daniel Marsh at NCAR. The research was funded by the National Science Foundation, which is NCAR’s sponsor, and the NASA Living With a Star program.

    Applying a new solar clock

    The appearance (and disappearance) of spots on the Sun — the outwardly visible signs of solar variability — have been observed by humans for hundreds of years. The waxing and waning of the number of sunspots takes place over approximately 11-year cycles, but these cycles do not have distinct beginnings and endings. This fuzziness in the length of any particular cycle has made it challenging for scientists to match up the 11-year cycle with changes happening on Earth.

    In the new study, the researchers rely on a more precise 22-year “clock” for solar activity derived from the Sun’s magnetic polarity cycle, which they outlined as a more regular alternative to the 11-year solar cycle in several companion studies published recently in peer-reviewed journals.

    The 22-year cycle begins when oppositely charged magnetic bands that wrap the Sun appear near the star’s polar latitudes, according to their recent studies. Over the cycle, these bands migrate toward the equator — causing sunspots to appear as they travel across the mid-latitudes. The cycle ends when the bands meet in the middle, mutually annihilating one another in what the research team calls a terminator event. These terminators provide precise guideposts for the end of one cycle and the beginning of the next.

    The researchers imposed these terminator events over sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific stretching back to 1960. They found that the five terminator events that occurred between that time and 2010-11 all coincided with a flip from an El Nino (when sea surface temperatures are warmer than average) to a La Nina (when the sea surface temperatures are cooler than average). The end of the most recent solar cycle — which is unfolding now — is also coinciding with the beginning of a La Nina event.

    “We are not the first scientists to study how solar variability may drive changes to the Earth system,” Leamon said. “But we are the first to apply the 22-year solar clock. The result — five consecutive terminators lining up with a switch in the El Nino oscillation — is not likely to be a coincidence.”

    In fact, the researchers did a number of statistical analyses to determine the likelihood that the correlation was just a fluke. They found there was only a 1 in 5,000 chance or less (depending on the statistical test) that all five terminator events included in the study would randomly coincide with the flip in ocean temperatures. Now that a sixth terminator event — and the corresponding start of a new solar cycle in 2020 — has also coincided with an La Nina event, the chance of a random occurrence is even more remote, the authors said.

    The paper does not delve into what physical connection between the Sun and Earth could be responsible for the correlation, but the authors note that there are several possibilities that warrant further study, including the influence of the Sun’s magnetic field on the amount of cosmic rays that escape into the solar system and ultimately bombard Earth. However, a robust physical link between cosmic rays variations and climate has yet to be determined.

    “If further research can establish that there is a physical connection and that changes on the Sun are truly causing variability in the oceans, then we may be able to improve our ability to predict El Nino and La Nina events, McIntosh said”.

  • Neville says:

    Geeeeeezzzzz now even Prince William is advising us to hit the reset button so we can avoid their so called climate disaster.
    His lifestyle hardly puts him in the best position to lecture us on how to cut back and live a more frugal way of life. And ditto to his clueless Dad down in his garden playing with the fairies.

  • Boambee John says:

    The joys of being “100%” renewable, from Their ABC’s Markus Mannheim.

    “Now, the market price is falling below the ACT’s negotiated prices, which means the ACT must pay extra to fulfil its contracts.

    And that’s the main reason Canberrans’ bills will increase — EvoEnergy says it expects its payments to renewable suppliers to more than triple from $42 million this financial year to $127 million in 2021-22.

    There are also differences between the market prices in South Australia (where a lot of the ACT’s contracted supply comes from) and New South Wales (where the ACT’s actual electricity comes from). Those differences are currently disadvantaging Canberra consumers.”

    Renewables are cheaper except when they are dearer. Eric Blair eat your heart out!

    The 2050 “targets” are only feasible with a giant three card trick and nuclear back-up.

  • Boambee John says:

    More alarmist insanity.

    “The idea of artificially cooling the planet to blunt climate change — in effect, blocking sunlight before it can warm the atmosphere — got a boost on Thursday when an influential scientific body urged the United States government to spend at least $100 million to research the technology.

    That technology, often called solar geoengineering, entails reflecting more of the sun’s energy back into space through techniques that include injecting aerosols into the atmosphere. In a new report, the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine said that governments urgently need to know whether solar geoengineering could work and what the side effects might be.”

    Well, for a start, it is likely to degrade the already poor performance of solar panels.

  • Neville says:

    We’re told this morning that the Vic govt’s advisory panel has recommended that only EVs should be sold after 2030.
    The cheapest EV is about 45 K and don’t expect to go very far if you want to tow a trailer, caravan or boat. And the toxic EV battery lasts about 7 years and the cost of new charging stns and availability will also be a heavy drain on govts and taxpayers + burying the toxic mess as well, FOREVER.
    Here Andrew Bolt talks to Alan Moran about this crazy push for more toxic ruinables and how China is riding a wave of cheap coal fired energy while crazy western countries wreck their economies with more toxic S&W idiocy that will change nothing and of course ZERO change to climate or temp.
    IOW going woke and going broke and don’t the lefty loonies just love it? And why don’t the L W donkeys ever show us their data and a proper cost benefit analysis? We all know why.

  • Neville says:

    Remember when the Steffen Donkey told us we are seeing the emergence of climate change during the recent NSW floods? And other LW loonies told us that we’re seeing once in 100 year floods?
    Well here’s a quick analysis from Paul Homewood and he uses BOM data and old videos of the 1956 floods to support his claims. Also he uses all the old trove records of drought/floods since settlement of OZ for further support .
    And the 1870 floods were higher than 1956 and this has been recorded at Mildura showing the two flood levels. And co2 levels were 288 ppm in 1870 and 314 ppm in 1956 and WAY below Dr Hansen’s so called safe level of 350 ppm.

  • Neville says:

    A recent Norwegian study has tried to measure any warming from co2 and seems to be very thorough and with a number of checks and balances. BTW they conclude that co2 warming may be 0.5% and I think that would be about 0.07c of warming if the global average temp ( for example) was about 14.5 c. Here’s the link and abstract and their conclusions. Who knows?

    Abstract” The Greenhouse Effect was simulated in a laboratory setup, consisting of a heated ground area and two chambers, one filled with air and one filled with air or CO2. While heating the gas the temperature and IR radiation in both chambers were measured. IR radiation was produced by heating a metal plate mounted on the rear wall. Reduced IR radiation through the front window was observed when the air in the foremost chamber was exchanged with CO2. In the rear chamber, we observed increased IR radiation due to backscatter from the front chamber. Based on the Stefan Boltzmann’s law, this should increase the temperature of the air in the rear chamber by 2.4 to 4 degrees, but no such increase was found. A thermopile, made to increase the sensitivity and accuracy of the temperature measurements, showed that the temperature with CO2 increased slightly, about 0.5%”.

    5.” Conclusion The results of our study show the near-identical heating curves when we change from air to 100% CO2 or to Argon gas with low CO2 concentration. Nevertheless, we observed absorption of IR radiation in the front chamber. We also observed the increased radiation density in the rear chamber due to the backscatter from CO2. The change in observed backscatter radiation should give us a measurable temperature increase of 2.4 to 4 K by using the Stefan Boltzmann law. But we only observe a very slight temperature increase due to CO2 backscatter. This indicates that heating, due to IR backscatter from CO2, is much less than what is assumed from the Stefan Boltzmann law or from the forcing Equation (1a) and Equation (1b). The near-identical heating curves for all the three gases indicate that the thermal energy transfer is only driven by the temperature of the back wall of the rear chamber. Without extra heating of the walls in the rear chamber, the air temperature cannot increase. These findings might question the fundament of the forcing laws used by the IPCC. Another possibility is that our setup has unexplained heat losses that cancel the effect of the increased backscatter IR and prevent higher temperatures in the rear chamber, but after testing this and finding only slight losses, we do not see that this could be the case”.

  • Boambee John says:

    Germans losing their enthusiasm for wind.

    “At the European Institute for Climate and Energy (EIKE) Andreas Demmig writes about a recent report on wind energy appearing on NDR German public television: “New energy act: More and more wind turbines going off the grid”.

    NDR featured the dismantling of three wind turbines in Altenstedt (Lower Saxony) after having been in operation for 20 years. “They are no longer profitable to operate” after the expiry of the 2o years of guaranteed feed-in tariffs to their operators.

    No longer economical without the subsidy

    The three wind turbines together generated 2 million kWh of electricity annually, meaning 666,666 kWh/ turbine per year. But now that the subsidies have ended, owner Horst Mengels explains he can no longer operate the turbines economically at electricity market prices of less than three, sometimes even one cent. Menawhile private consumers of electricity now have to pay 30 cents and more for a kWh. Repair and maintenance of the turbines are no longer possible at the low market prices.

    Last year, only 200 new wind turbines were built. At the current rate, more turbine capacity will be coming offline than what is being added.

    Prof. Volker Quaschning, expert on green energies, says that the dismantling of wind (and PV) plants, spurred on by the expiry of subsidies, sets back the energy turnaround by years. “If you look back, 20 years ago more was built than what we see today. There is a danger that at some point we will end up with zero new construction, or even a net reduction. – Then we won’t need to talk about climate protection in Germany any more.”

    From No Tricks Zone.

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