An Indian view of climate change, and where it led me

By August 8, 2019Other

In Australia, and more generally in the Western world, we are accustomed to take seriously only opinions that come from our own languages and cultures. We will notice what the Americans say, the British, and the Dutch, for example. But if the opinions come from Russia, or China or India, we discount them. If they come from Brazil or Chile, we are unlikely even to know about them. A knowledgeable friend (peer-reviewed, yes, and an IPCC reviewer) pointed me towards an op ed piece in The Times of India, and I read it with some interest. The author is Sanjeev Sabhlok, who was educated in part at the University of Southern California, and after working for the Government of India, quit his job in despair and formed a right-wing anti-socialist party. He has become fascinated with the climate change issue, and what follows is a piece of cut-and-paste on my part. You can read it all here 

 ‘As a liberal party, our default position is to reject any government intervention in the lives of people unless it is thoroughly justified. In particular, we reject the wishy-washy precautionary principle. Real harm must be proven before even the thought of government intervention is entertained.’

Well, there you go. Since I too reject the precautionary principle, I am with him there. On he goes: even the IPCC says there is no harm from climate change:

 ‘The IPCC’s 2014 AR5 report (see the chart at p.690 of Chapter 10 of the Working Group II’s contribution) makes note of 20 studies by economists about the welfare impacts of climate change. Three of these conclude that doing nothing may improve things. Most of the remaining 17 studies suggest a very modest loss of future income, of less than three per cent. The IPCC summarises: estimates of global annual economic losses for an additional temperature increase of 2°C are between 0.2 and 2.0 per cent of income. These are its precise words. Check them out for yourself.’

He moves on to an issue that has caught my attention in the past, though I have not explored it, or written about it.

‘There is no basis to suggest that today’s temperature or sea level is optimal for life on earth. The climate has constantly changed, sometimes massively. A few degrees up and down, a few tens of metres of sea level up and down, is par for the course for life on Earth.

Just a thousand years ago, the global temperature was very warm. The IPCC’s first report had a chart that showed temperatures far in excess of current temperatures during the Medieval Warming (MW) period. But the IPCC soon realised that people wouldn’t cough up their money unless the MW was erased. Since then, these “scientists” have been making strenuous efforts to get rid of it. 

A recent study published in Nature rejects MW. But I’d be reluctant to embrace it, at least not so fast. It needs to be thoroughly scrutinised by scientists whose hundreds of previous studies confirmed the MW. The weight of evidence is still with the MW. And then the temperatures cooled, leading to a Little Ice Age from which we emerged around two hundred years ago. All this variation occurred without man-made CO2 emissions.’

My position is that so far the evidence tells us that increased CO2 in the atmosphere is associated with greater food production and seems to have caused a perceptible greening in the close-to-arid parts of the planet. I do agree with him that the notion that today’s sea levels and temperatures are somehow ‘optimal’ does need a good deal of consideration. I see no reason to accept it.

My interest now keen, I thought I would find out more about India’s electricity supply, and where it came from. How like or unlike Australia’s was it? According to Wikipedia, there is one national grid, and just about everybody (99.7 per cent) is connected to it. As with us, coal is the backbone of Indian electricity production, amounting to not quite 76 per cent. India runs fourth in the world in coal reserves. Then come large hydro-electricity sources (nearly 10 per cent), small hydro (0.4 per cent), wind (4 per cent), gas (nearly 4 per cent), nuclear (2.9 per cent), solar (2 per cent), and biomass (1.2 per cent).

It is rather similar to Australia, where the standard division of fuel sources for electricity (Ausgrid) runs at coal 74 per cent, natural gas 15 per cent, with the remaining 11 per cent produced by hydro (6 percent) and wind, rooftop solar and biomass contributing 5 per cent. The renewables proportion is increasing. We have no geothermal energy yet, and no nuclear energy. India has more hydro.

What about China? Coal supplies 65 per cent of electricity there, hydro 18 per cent and a bit more from pumped storage, nuclear 4 per cent, natural gas 3 per cent, renewables (wind, solar and biomass) around 7.7 per cent), other thermal nearly 2 per cent. That’s not strikingly dissimilar either. And China runs third in the world, just above India, in terms of its coal reserves.

Okay, what about Germany, the great leader in alternative electricity policy? Coal provides 45 per cent, renewables about 32 per cent, with nuclear power stations still providing power, despite the decision to close all plants. Germany has its own coal reserves, but buys in power from elsewhere in Europe when it needs to. Not a fair comparison.

All right, let’s go to Canada, which really is unusual. Hydro provides 59 per cent of electricity, then nuclear (15 per cent), fossil fuels 19 per cent, with coal only 9 per cent, and non-hydro renewables at 7 per cent. Alberta and Saskatchewan have oil and gas, and use them in their power production. But the other provinces do not. The Canadian situation is strikingly different not only to Australia, but to the other nations I have listed here. But then Canada has abundant water, and we don’t, at all. But we do have abundant coal.

A final journey takes us to Botswana, arguably the least corrupt state in sub-Saharan Africa. There is one supplier, the Botswana Power Corporation, which produces electricity from coal, at about half the desired consumption. It can get more power from South Africa, which has its own problems with under-capacity, so Botswana gets blackouts, too. It has its own coal reserves too, but getting them out is not easy for a poor country.

So there you are. On the face of it, you use what you can when you can afford to, in terms of the production of electricity. That is, until you have to deal with renewables. What things will be like in 2037, when I will have passed on or awaiting a royal congratulation, I have no idea. But coal will still be important in the mix, I think.

Join the discussion 369 Comments

  • Chris Warren says:

    These sort of comments annoy me…

    “But the IPCC soon realised that people wouldn’t cough up their money unless the MW was erased. ”

    Which “people” set this condition? Is there evidence?

    • Boambee John says:

      Chris

      Didn’t the Climategate emails include one that mentioned a (perceived need to eliminate the MWP from the record? Bad for the prospect of future grants?

      It would have been individuals who saw the need, the IPCC is their collective existence.

      • Chris Warren says:

        The topic was IPCC.

        You provide no evidence.

        • Boambee John says:

          Chris

          You might not have noticed, but there is staffing overlap between the IPCC and various climate study organisations around the world.

          Also, I am continually amazed that someone who worked as a bureaucrat is unable to recognise the desire of bureaucracies to continue in existence.

          Organisations like the IPCC, CRU, BOM, CSIRO, NASA-GISS and NOAA are comprised of fallible human beings, with all of the human weaknesses and ambitions. They avoid actions that might endanger their future careers, like presenting unacceptable options, and work towards options that help achieve those ambitions.

          • Chris Warren says:

            Irrelevent…. what people wouldn’t cough up their money unless their condition was met?

            If you want to run some other agenda do it elsewhere.

          • Boambee John says:

            Chris

            As you wish, please continue to believe in the genius and impeccable unhuman nature of your chosen prophets.

      • spangled drongo says:

        Yes BJ, our blith not only must deny that Overpeck wanted to get rid of the MWP but also that his associates wanted to get rid of his email that said so.

        Oh, those inconvenient denials that come back to bite the blitherers!

        But guess what?

        He even denies the denial.

  • Neville says:

    Here’s another way of looking at the actual co2 emissions since the Paris BS and fra-d show.
    Cape Grim data shows DEC 2015 co2 levels at about 398ppm and today that has increased to over 407 ppm or an increase of 9 +ppm in just the last 4 years.
    And all of that increase has come from the non OECD countries like China, India etc, while OECD have tried to cut back emissions.
    At that rate co2 emissions will increase by another 22.5% by 2029 and a further 47.25% by 2040. Anyone starting to see a problem yet?

  • Neville says:

    Sorry last sentence above should be ppm not %. See below—

    “At that rate co2 emissions will increase by another 22.5 ppm by 2029 and a further 47.25 ppm by 2040. Anyone starting to see a problem yet”?

  • spangled drongo says:

    “The IPCC is saying that instead of being 6 times richer by the end of the century (the historic performance of economies for the past 200 years) our future generations will be only 5.6 times richer. I am sure tears are starting to roll down your cheeks by now.”

    “In contrast to CO2, though, socialism causes real harm – but don’t expect Nature or grant-sucking scientists and economists to tell us that.”

    “In brief, economists and scientists have comprehensively failed to prove that CO2 causes any harm. No case has been made whatsoever for any government intervention.”

    It is this increase in wealth that will reduce global population.

    Business as usual is the best environmental solution.

    BAU is the best economic solution.

  • Stu says:

    Don, much of what you just wrote and the bit from your Indian friend runs quite counter to the conclusions of the latest IPCC paper published yesterday.

    Here is a quote “The report highlights that climate change is affecting all four pillars of food security: availability (yield and production), access (prices and ability to obtain food), utilization (nutrition and cooking), and stability (disruptions to availability).

    “Food security will be increasingly affected by future climate change through yield declines – especially in the tropics – increased prices, reduced nutrient quality, and supply chain disruptions,” said Priyadarshi Shukla, Co-Chair of IPCC Working Group III.

    “We will see different effects in different countries, but there will be more drastic impacts on low-income countries in Africa, Asia, Latin America and the Caribbean,” he said.”

    I regard this report with more credibility than many of the unfounded claims of increasing yields etc overall.

    Sounds like time for some precautionary action to me.

  • Chris Warren says:

    It is not clear why anyone should oppose a precautionary principle. Vaccination is based on precaution, and diversifying a portfolio is a precaution.

    Precautionary action seems common sense if you accept the wisdom summed-up in “a stitch in time saves nine”.

    Precautionary action seems highly desirable if the consequences of not taking action is an unstoppable catastrophic disaster that either threatens life in susceptible regions or, worse case, possibly all human life on Earth.

    • Boambee John says:

      Chris

      “Precautionary action seems highly desirable if the consequences of not taking action is an unstoppable catastrophic disaster that either threatens life in susceptible regions or, worse case, possibly all human life on Earth.”

      I agree.

      There is a finite possibility that an asteroid could strike the earth, ending all life on earth. I believe that a special force should be established, operating missiles with nuclear warheads, to attempt to divert any threat as it is identified. Obviously, a world wide space surveillance network will be needed to identify and track all objects in space and classify the risk from each.

      This will cost trillions, but the survival of life on earth is worth the cost.

      Or we could make some rational assessments of the relative risk.

      The “Precautionary Principle” can be used to justify anything.

      • Chris Warren says:

        As a precaution, scientists are working on how to protect the Earth from asteroids.

        So back in your box – you go.

        • Boambee John says:

          But they haven’t got to the big dollars yet. Will you support them when they do? And will you give such a significant threat priority above combating CAGW?

          And there are others I could offer. How far are you prepared to go?

          If you are not prepared to fund every conceivable option, back in your box you go, and take the Precautionary Principle with you.

        • spangled drongo says:

          “As a precaution, scientists are working on how to protect the Earth from asteroids.”

          And so they should.

          Because that’s a real world threat that has happened many times before.

          But CO2-induced catastrophe has never happened and likely never will.

          But CO2-induced luxuriance has happened often.

          So please stop blithering and bed-wetting.

      • Anders Valland says:

        Chris, you are confusing the ‘Precautionary principle’ with precaution. You are not alone, but I would suggest you think about this for a while.

        It is true that we do vaccines as a precaution against disease. The reason is that we know, for a fact, that without vaccines we have much less control of the disease. Vaccines gives us an upper hand since we stop disease before it breaks out, without it we are left to fight the outbreaks. This we know, by hard evidence.

        It is true that some will negotiate high risk by diversifying a portfolio. This is because we know, for a fact, that not doing so increases risk and increases the portion of chance in the game. We know this by hard experience.

        The ‘Precautionary principle’, however, deals with fundamental uncertainty. See the difference? Don’t get misled by the name, it has nothing to do with precaution. So according to the precautionary principle, if you are faced with a decision where there is fundamental uncertainty on what will happen you should actually proceed with caution, rock the boat as little as possible and await a chance to gather more specific knowledge.

        How is the ‘principle’ used when it comes to environmental issues? How is it used in respect to climate? Well, take a good hard look at what is being proposed. We have enormous schemes coming up where the proposition is to fundamentally change our societies, where we should introduce old school technology (harvesting wind and sun) which lays waste to enormous land areas, we should stop our use of agriculture as we know it and reverse tens of thousands of years of development. Based on what? Based on the assumption that it might possibly happen that our future will hold a different climate than we have today.

        Have you ever considered the use of that precious ‘principle’ on the proposed climate mitigation actions themselves? You should.

        And when you do, you will find as the rest of us that applying that precious ‘principle’ on situations with fundamental uncertainty you end up going round and round and round, for no other reason than you are afraid of moving on.

        The ‘Precautionary principle’ is nothing more than a fancy name for stalling progress made by those who fear change.

        • Chris Warren says:

          Anders Valland

          That was a good post written with some effort.

          Of course the amount of precaution has to deal with the level of uncertainty of any adverse outcome.

          But the different weighting you give to precaution now, compared to waiting ” to gather more specific knowledge”, has to recognise another factor – the impact of an adverse outcome sans precautionary prior provisions.

          With portfolios, the adverse outcome is restricted to those who voluntarily took risks. With vaccinations precautionary steps are almost obligatory because we know with certainty that plague, smallpox, measles, flu, tetanus, syphilis etc spread wantonly, killing thousands of innocents.

          So those who see a major catastrophe, as a almost certain outcome, of increased CO2 up to and over 500 ppm, have every cause to deploy the precautionary principle today. The period for gathering more information is over.

          We have enough evidence that introducing precautions now is not “based on the assumption that it might possibly happen that our future will hold a different climate than we have today.” We no longer assume the basic facts of global warming.

          We know that when CO2 soars over 500 ppm, we will have an atmosphere of some 50 million years ago just after the PETM. When 500ppm were in the atmosphere – there was no ice on Earth.

          So the judgement that has to be made is to assess the impact of having 500ppm CO2 in the atmosphere and the historical evidence strongly suggests a much, much warmer global environment and one introduced at such speed that many species will be unable to adapt.

  • spangled drongo says:

    “It is not clear why anyone should oppose a precautionary principle.”

    It’s crystal clear to rational people.

    Nobody pays a premium equal to ten times the price of their house each year to insure it against a likely non-problem.

    Well, nobody in their right mind, that is.

    • Anders Valland says:

      Chris, thank you for the reply.

      As you know, Mark Twain once said that is not the things we do not know that get us into trouble. It is the things we know that just ain’t so.

      You are confusing what people think with what they know. It s not surprising, because that is how our human brains are built. We believe in what we think. It is why someone invented Science, that thing which is easy to understand but very hard to do.

      When you say “So those who see a major catastrophe, as a almost certain outcome, of increased CO2 up to and over 500 ppm, have every cause to deploy the precautionary principle today” you are doing that on the premise that the precautinary principle is actually a working principle and that it is correct. And thus you miss the quite important part of my post where I challenge the principle itself.

      You claim that the use of the principle is correct because someone believes that something bad will happen. That is not a very rational stance on anything.

      • Chris Warren says:

        You can design a precautionary principle to ensure it is as correct as necessary. Believing that something bad could happen is sufficient to evoke some level of precaution – even if it never occurs in the future.

        You never know for certain what will happen, you only know what could happen – good or bad.

  • spangled drongo says:

    Saying food yield and production will suffer with a little warming and increased CO2 is like saying that coral will die in warmer water.

    You’ve notice all the crops and coral growing in those cold areas?

    They just hate the warm stuff, hey?

    What would we do without this “science”?

    • Stu says:

      Can’t you get the simple message? It is not about a little warming, it is about the bigger warming that builds on the little we have now. And of course deniers thInk that 1.5 degrees is insignificant when research has shown that for many species that is a case of too much too soon. Then throw in the accelerators by reaching climate tipping points. Some are saying we are already closer to that point than calculated.

      • spangled drongo says:

        We were into at least 4c higher temps in the early Holocene.

        How far into the higher latitudes do you think coral grew during the Holocene high stand?

        How well do you think coral coped with enormous warming and SLR at the start of the Holocene?

        How well do you think plant life coped with that enormous warming and CO2 rise?

        Compare warming and SLR with cooling and falling seas and tell us which works better for crops and coral.

        Try expanding your tiny mind a little, stu.

        • Boambee John says:

          SD

          “We were into at least 4c higher temps in the early Holocene.”

          This is one of the reasons for the push to “eliminate” the MWP. If it can be shown that the woelrld survived at higher temperatures than currently expected (not predicted, and even expected is flattering the alarmists), then the heat, so to speak, goes out of the issue.

          • spangled drongo says:

            Absolutely, BJ.

            And some of those papers claim that Holocene high stand temps must have been up to 7c warmer.

            As I keep asking stu [and he never replies] please show us one thing that is happening now at current CO2 levels that didn’t happen with CO2 levels below 300ppm.

      • Bryan Roberts says:

        Define a climate ‘tipping point’, and the factors that will trigger one. Why has one never been reached in the past, when both temperatures and CO2 levels were higher than today?

        • Chris Warren says:

          Bryan Roberts

          A tipping point is the point at which global ice declines year on year.

          Another tipping point is when the median wet bulb temperature equals the human body temperature.

          There have been several tipping points in the past causing collapses of civilisations and extinctions of species.

          • spangled drongo says:

            How many “tipping points” do you think we had back in the Holocene high stand, blith?

            You know, before the LIA came along.

            And how’s this for a modern “tipping point”:

            https://s3.amazonaws.com/jo.nova/graph/temp/uhi/rome-eu-heat-map-m.gif

          • Stu says:

            One of the most amazing developments in recent decades is the complete rigging of the temperature records of every country on earth by their meteorological boffins to hoax everyone into accepting that the world is rapidly getting warmer when it is not. Even more amazing is that a small group, think Novas, Bolts etc have totally exposed this rort with minimal scientific resources and time. Bloody amazing, NOT. Get real you denialist freaks, you are in the same league as flat earthers and creationists, no hope for you unless you snap out of your self inflicted refusal to accept facts.

            Oh, and SD, how much higher was the sea level in your so called 4 degree warmer world of the early holocene and how rapidly did things change back then? Your obsession with that era, on flimsy evidence, and urine does cause sane folks to question your peccadilloes and sanity.

      • Boambee John says:

        Stu

        “Some are saying”

        Ah, that well known friend of journalists and commentators who wish to make a point, “Some say”. An unreliable source with no proven access to genuine data.

        “Some” have been predicting tipping points for many years. Will they be correct this time?

        • Chris Warren says:

          Boambee John

          There are plenty of reliable sources with access to reliable data.

          You are just incompetant… a school-boy could locate plenty [7,630,000 results ]

          https://www.google.com/search?client=firefox-b-d&q=climate+tipping+points

          • Boambee John says:

            Chris

            Again, as so often, you (deliberately?) miss my point.

            Stu could have cited some of these references, but instead chose the lazy “Some say” meme.

            PS, I hope that you studied all 7,630,000 results before responding in such a trite fashion.

          • Chris Warren says:

            You queried “some”.

            You suffer the consequences.

          • Boambee John says:

            Chris

            If you are ignorant of the journalistic device of using “Some say” when they are either too lazy to check the data, or simply wish to push their own barrow, then you have lived a very sheltered life.

            You need to get out into the real world more.

            What consequences? You making yet another silly comment? Oh, the pain!

  • Neville says:

    Don’s home city turned on snow, hail, sleet and rain for the AFL footy tonight.
    The game started with temps about 2 c and at the end the Hawkes had a fairly easy win over the Sydney Giants.
    Too bloody cold for my liking but you have to admire the young blokes and certainly no place for sissies.

  • spangled drongo says:

    Meanwhile, how many sites like this does it take to produce that 1c of warming?

    https://s3.amazonaws.com/jo.nova/bom-site-audit/sa/streaky-bay-up-view.jpg

  • Neville says:

    This article about Michael Moore’s latest movie sounds a bit like the Bob Brown donkeys wake up call.
    Moore is an extremist lefty but even he can add up simple sums and understand that ruinables, EVs etc are powered by fossil fuels and nothing on the horizon will change things for a long time.

    There is Nuclear energy of course but western countries seem to be too stupid to start building more of these safe, reliable and long lived power plants.
    Lomborg has looked at the data and evidence for clueless S&W energy for many years and the sums don’t add up. We should remove all subsidies for these ruinables ASAP and only build reliable, base-load power plants like coal , gas or nuclear .
    Just like China, India and non OECD have been doing for decades. And the best of luck to them for wanting reliable base-load power to build a brighter, wealthier future for their countries.

    https://wattsupwiththat.com/2019/08/09/michael-moore-backed-doc-planet-of-the-humans-tackles-false-promises-of-green-energy/

    • Boambee John says:

      So, not only has Bob Brown recanted on wind farms, but Michael Moore has made a documentary panning all forms of renewabaubles!

      What next? Al Gore to jet around the world, regardless of the CO2 emissions? Oh, wait ….

      Seriously, which will be the next to recant? Flannery? Mann? The CRU, NASA, NOAA, BOM, CSIRO?

  • Neville says:

    Here is the TOTAL energy in 2015 to run our planet. This IEA pie graph shows that fossil fuels generate 81.5% of the energy and BIO+ waste another 9.7%. That’s a TOTAL of 91.2% and since 2015 we know that co2 emissions have increased by 9 ppm or 2.25 ppm per year. See Cape Grim data.
    So simple sums + data should tell us they have no chance to reduce co2 emissions while the non OECD countries have a strong desire to catch up to the wealthy countries and their much higher standard of living.

    https://www.iea.org/stats/WebGraphs/WORLD4.pdf

  • Stu says:

    The world will nit require any energy by 2200 the way we are going about things now.

    • Boambee John says:

      Stu

      Particularly if it is hit by an asteroid before then.

      When the world wide space object tracking system is set up, the radar stations will need continuous, reliable power to operate all day every day. Unless there can be some major breakthroughs with solar, wind and batteries, or some completely new technology is developed, before then, the necessary power will be provided by either nuclear or fossil generators.

      Oh the choices. Renewabaubles or asteroid defence!

  • Stu says:

    One of the most amazing developments in recent decades is the complete rigging of the temperature records of every country on earth by their meteorological boffins to hoax everyone into accepting that the world is rapidly getting warmer when it is not. Even more amazing is that a small group, think Novas, Bolts etc have totally exposed this rort with minimal scientific resources and time. Bloody amazing, NOT. Get real you denialist freaks, you are in the same league as flat earthers and creationists, no hope for you unless you snap out of your self inflicted refusal to accept facts.
    Oh, and SD, how much higher was the sea level in your so called 4 degree warmer world of the early holocene and how rapidly did things change back then? Your obsession with that era, on flimsy evidence, and urine does cause sane folks to question your peccadilloes and sanity.

    • spangled drongo says:

      Ever wondered why those “meteorological boffins” run as fast and far from an audit as they know how?

      And even when you can see those UHIs from space, you blitherers are still the REAL deniers.

      And I have already given you dozens of papers on higher SLs and temps during the HHS.

      Go and read some science, and then get back to us.

  • Neville says:

    I see our religious fanatics are back to believing in their fantasy world again. We’ve provided them with the proper data/evidence and they still don’t understand.
    I wouldn’t mind if this didn’t cost the taxpayers an arm and a leg to produce nothing but rubbish energy and have ZERO impact on the temp or climate by 2100. IOW a complete waste of time and money.
    Just the data for co2 emissions increase since 2015 should make them wake up, but once again simple sums are beyond their comprehension.
    We’ve provided them with SL data from per reviewed studies and Greenland+ Antarctic temp and ice-sheet studies, yet they still prefer the comfort of their fantasy world. They just love their BS and fra-d.

  • Stu says:

    In the climate debate, religion i.e. “belief” only exists in the world of the denialists, the other side follows science, facts and reality. SD, BJ and Nev should climb out their cocoons and take in the real world. I know they wont because it would threaten their tightly held “beliefs”, that is why Chris, there is no point putting up actual links, they don’t follow them. Conversely I do check out the ones they post, if only for a good laugh with most of them, they are so loose and often fraudulent in their claims.

    • Boambee John says:

      Keep it up, Stu, you can always be relied upon to provide some light relief.

    • spangled drongo says:

      Well, we all know how you always fail to deal with the message but attack the messenger.

      And you completely fail to answer a simple question but dodge it week after week.

      That’s a sure sign of your honest debate [koff].

  • Bryan Roberts says:

    Still waiting for ‘refugees’ from the ‘sinking’ Pacific Island nations. Apparently the ‘compensation’ didn’t turn up, so there was no need for Tuvalu to disappear.

  • Neville says:

    I’m sure I’m wasting my time, but here again are the CSIRO data for GHGs from Cape Grim Tas. I readily accept these fools are not very bright, but surely there can be no excuse for not understanding these records.
    Their fantasy world just seems to overcome reality at every turn. Barking mad doesn’t begin to describe it.

    https://www.csiro.au/en/Research/OandA/Areas/Assessing-our-climate/Latest-greenhouse-gas-data

    • Stu says:

      What point are you trying to make? Yes the GHG’s are going up, no argument there so I am mystified as to the relevance of your post.

    • Chris Warren says:

      Yet again Neville, calling everyone else “fools”, posts stuff that disproves his own argument.

      Freudian slip for all to see.

  • spangled drongo says:

    After stressing how we must all give up producing and eating meat to save the planet from CO2 emissions, here’s an analysis of the food eaten by the UN IPCC hypocrites at the last COP24 in Poland:

    https://www.biologicaldiversity.org/news/press_releases/2018/images/COP24menu-Melissa-Amarello-Center-for-Biological-Diversity.jpg

  • Stu says:

    SD, since you wont answer the question I will do it for you. Paleo studies have shown that in short periods way back the sea level rose 5metres in 100 years due to warming. In case you have trouble with simple maths that is 5 cm per year, which is very fast. So based on your own numbers this is what could happen before 2100. Never mind, you stick with your inconsistent arguments.

    • spangled drongo says:

      Stu, I think you deliberately confuse yourself to defend the indefensible. Try to stick to specifics.

      We are discussing the Holocene high stand [you know, the era of civilisation] where there are a huge number of studies showing well indicated sea level rise of up to 3 metres, high latitude treeline movement of great distances etc that indicate warming of up to 7c higher than present.

      This is natural climate variability that has commonly occurred during the HHS with low CO2 concentrations and the change can often be more rapid than anything we are seeing today.

      But I have been asking you for a long time; if you have any evidence of anything that is happening today that is any different from what has happened during the last 80 centuries, feel free to advise us.

      Still waiting patiently.

  • Chris Warren says:

    If it takes 5 times more energy to heat water 1 degree than it does to heat sand, then as the seashore warms the water level may apparently fall. Unfortunately water level is increased further by melting land ice.

    Is this why denialists only look at relative sea levels?

    It is a dirty, unscientific, trick to boost their dogmas.

    Science defeats denialism.

  • Neville says:

    SD is correct about the much higher temps during the Holocene climate optimum. This MacDonald et al study found temps were
    2 to 7 c higher than today across northern Russia and the tree line extended much further north for thousands of years.
    SLs were at least 1.5 metres higher on the east coast of OZ just 4,000 years ago ( see ABC Catalyst) and some recent studies show even higher levels at that time. Yet today we have Coral atoll island studies that show most island groups are either stable or have increased in land area over the last 30 years. See Kench etc.
    So where is this dangerous SLR that we have been regularly warned about in the MSM since 1990? And OZ cyclones have shown a lower trend for the last 50 years. That’s for severe and non severe cyclones according to the BOM.

    https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0033589499921233

    • Chris Warren says:

      More incompetence from Neville.

      Neville did not read the paper he cited. The cause for the warmer region was local impact of Milankovitch cycles, associated deglaciation [pg 307] and a moving isotherm. Insolation at the time was an extra 45 watts/m or so, compared to 1950 [see fig 4]

      The point is that in 1950 we were experiencing temperatures similar to Holocene temps BUT without the natural causes that applied then.

      The paper therefore proves global warming because we are not in the same Milancovitch position and solar insolation is 45 watts/m less.

  • Stu says:

    SD, you really don’t research your posts very well do you. Yes there have been ups and downs of temperature during the early holocene. In some specific places there were changes on the scale you claim but none of that scale for the average temperature of the earth. So yes, at a time the Arctic may have been even 8 degrees warner (in summer) but less so in winter. Science ascribes those changes to many factors. The primary factors being orbital changes causing the main glacial/non glacial eras. The glacial retreat caused such mass change that there were earth rebound effects, still going in slowly which cloud the record. (Did you see the temperatures in Greenland last week?)

    If you want to talk about ‘global’ temperatures on that scale you have to go back to the PETM about 55 million years ago.

    Perhaps you should drop your preoccupation with the Holocene and start considering the Anthropocene. Admittedly the final definition of this epoch is still undergoing debate within the science community, but mainly as to the start point. It is of more relevance to the present.

    The issue now is that with AGW, we are effectively experimenting with the global climate by massive addition of GHG’s. Research has indicated that the changes in the cryosphere, oceans, atmosphere, and biosphere etc appear to be leading to possible runaway climate effects previously only generated by orbital changes.

    It appears that the past rapid scale of change you talk of could happen again soon given the current rate of warming. Of course I overlook the fact that you think that 2 degrees of global warming is trivial, unlike generally accepted scientific thinking.

    And no, I won’t give you pointers to the research. You are a big boy now and can find the stuff yourself, it is very easy, if you are truly interested and have an open mind.

    Meantime you can daydream about the wonderful times past.

    Did you notice it is cold again this weekend? That is called weather!

    • spangled drongo says:

      Stop cherry picking your replies stu.

      It wasn’t just the Arctic that was warmer, there are dozens of papers that show much warmer periods during the Holocene at all latitudes.

      Based on [among other things] the sound evidence of observable, elevated coastal shelves with huge oyster beds still intact.

      I have already provided you with this data.

      This is factual climate temperature rise on a global scale, many times more than we are seeing today.

      Could that be why you are unable to answer and continually dodging my simple question?

      Why don’t you just be honest and admit you are wrong about our 1c-warming-since-the-coldest-period-in-civilisation?

      It is mostly, if not all, Nat Var.

      And did you notice anything about that “weather”?

      Whether it is hot or cold you can have thermometers on various verandahs of the same house and you will get temperature variations at any one time that are far greater than our “climate crisis” warming you are bed wetting about.

      A wall is all you need for a UHI effect.

      We are currently in the lowest quartile of known temperature fluctuations during the Holocene.

      Just be thankful that it still seems to be rising and not falling.

      The cold is much worse for your enuresis.

  • Chris Warren says:

    Holocene temps compared to last century.

    http://www.realclimate.org/images//Marcott.png

    This is no hockey stick.

    And the spice will continue for the next 100 years at the same rate.

    • spangled drongo says:

      Yes, blith, we know that the true believers’ assumption-based temperature range for the Holocene is a conveniently-assumed 0.5c.

      It’s just a shame it doesn’t tally with all the observable facts.

      You know, tree lines, sea levels, oyster beds, etc.

      Could that possibly be why you only produce back-yard graphs and no measurable evidence?

      As usual.

    • Chris Warren says:

      spice => spike

  • Neville says:

    We have no dangerous SLR according to many recent studies and the Greenland instrumental data disproves the Marcott study. See Vinther and other study I’ve linked to before and the earlier 20th century showed a higher trend than today. So wrong again.
    BTW here is an interesting finding from the York Uni tool. If you zero the temp at 1979.7 and check the trend to 1998.99 ( peak of the el nino ) you get 0.159 c/ dec.
    Then set the start date at 2000.1 ( zero again) and the end date at the highest el nino of 2016.95 you have a trend of 0.109 c/ dec. Or lower than the earlier trend.
    If you also extend the trend to the present day 2000.1 to 2019.8 you find 0.132 c/dec or about the same as the 40 year trend.
    BTW I used UAH V 6 data for this and I may have made a mistake, but I hope someone will check. Here’s the tool.

    http://www.ysbl.york.ac.uk/~cowtan/applets/trend/trend.html

  • Chris Warren says:

    Silly Nevile, tries to hide behind the Vinter study.

    Ha, ha, ha …

    When you look at the entire Artic region you get a different story.

    https://www.nature.com/articles/sdata201426/figures/2

    Focusing on Greenland is cherry-picking.

    The cherry-picking probably originates from the ton of mad Monk and Don Easterbrook who relies on temperatures at the top of the Greenland ice sheet as a proxy for global temperatures. That’s a fatal flaw, before we even begin to examine the use of the ice core data. A single regional record cannot stand in for the global record — local variability will be higher than the global, plus we have evidence that Antarctic temperatures swing in the opposite direction to Arctic changes.

    More info is at: https://skepticalscience.com/10000-years-warmer.htm

    Denialists are now just a laughing stock are are reduced to just a few hecklers from the sidelines.

    Science moves on.

    • Boambee John says:

      Chris

      “Denialists are now just a laughing stock are are reduced to just a few hecklers from the sidelines.”

      I must say how much I admire your missionary fervour, and Stu’s as well.

      You spend hours taliking to “denialists” (= scepptics), whom you claim to be a “laughing stock”. Yet despite massive effort, extending across many threads, not only have you not convinced SD, Neville and me, you also seem not to have convinced our blog host.

      I suspect that Don is both smarter and more widely educated than any of us, yet he still keeps posting sceptical articles.

      In the words of Oliver Cromwell, “Think it possible that you may be wrong”.

  • Stu says:

    It is amazing that you guys have all this knowledge that seems to have escaped notice by all the world met establishments. True Galileo stuff eh, dream on. Dunning-Kruger at its best.

    And BTW for Don. On the home page there is a long list of resource sites. Practically all denial palaces. I wonder if he realises some of them like sceptical science may be should not be there because they run counter to the general theme here. At the least there is quite an imbalance of stuff there.

    • Boambee John says:

      Stu

      “And BTW for Don. On the home page there is a long list of resource sites. Practically all denial palaces. I wonder if he realises some of them like sceptical science may be should not be there because they run counter to the general theme here. At the least there is quite an imbalance of stuff there.”

      Perhaps Don is more open minded than you?

  • Chris Warren says:

    Denialist

    Wipe the tears from your eyes and look around you…

    http://www.realclimate.org/images//shakun_marcott_hadcrut4_a1b_eng.png

  • spangled drongo says:

    Isn’t it amazing how true believers can believe so strongly but can never produce measureable evidence.

    And continually dodge simple questions.

    Could it possibly that their belief has never had anything to do with the science?

    So they must adjust the science to support their belief?

    • Stu says:

      Were you not watching? We covered the belief thing, you guys are the religious ones. I have asked before are you also anti-vaccination?

      • Boambee John says:

        Stu

        “Anti-vaccination”? Ever ready to toss in the insult, you and Chris both.

        Chris also tosses in nicotine and the moon landings. Lift your game!

        • Stu says:

          It is just that often the lack of logic links those conspiracy theories. Often a high correlation. Same goes for support of Tony Abbott!

          • Boambee John says:

            Stu

            Good to know that you are such an expert psychologist that you can make diagnoses based purely on short blog posts.

            Give up the alarmism, you have a great career ahead of you in psychology. (Sarc).

            Not only that, you can divine which specific politician a poster supports.

            Brilliant!

  • Neville says:

    Steve McIntyre challenged Marcott 2013 from the beginning, particularly the uptick at the end. In this post he refers a number of times to the upside down Mann data as well.

    https://climateaudit.org/2013/03/19/bent-their-core-tops-in/

    • Chris Warren says:

      This is for all the Greenland cheery-pickers.

      The result of looking at the northern slice of the northern hemisphere (30° to 90°).

      https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Peter_Poschlod/publication/295548652/figure/fig9/AS:331985726787586@1456162973473/Decade-average-temperature-trend-in-the-non-tropical-northern-hemisphere-90-to-30N_W640.jpg

      You can add in the data for 2000 – 2019 yourself.

    • Chris Warren says:

      Poor old McIntyre, stuffed again….

      Here is trend to 2100

      Notice any uptick??

      https://ourchangingclimate.files.wordpress.com/2013/03/shakun_marcott_hadcrut4_a1b_eng.png

    • Stu says:

      Good old Steve has popped up again. As his website says “the tip jar is open again”. He must have run short of cash. SD, BJ and Co I am confident you can help him out with a large donation to keep the bulldust moving.

      Here is how one place describes his “work”.

      “McIntyre has been described as a “persistent amateur who had no credentials in applied science before stepping into the global warming debate in 2003” and has been a prominent critic of temperature records that suggest increasing global temperatures over the past 1000 years.” Unsuccessfully though.

      They go on to say

      “McIntyre became embroiled in a row with psychology researchers at the University of Western Australia, including Professor Stephan Lewandowsky. Lewandowsky was the lead author on research finding that endorsement of conspiracy theories, such as NASA faking the Apollo moon landings, was linked to the rejection of climate science. ” Sounds like good research, I must dig it up.

      Interesting fellow, but as usual not a climate scientist.

      • Boambee John says:

        Stu

        And yet, despite being “not a climate scientist”, he destroyed the Hockey Stick.

        Imagine what he could have done had he been one?

      • Bryan Roberts says:

        “Sounds like good research, I must dig it up”
        Don’t bother. Lewandowsky was silly enough to become embroiled with John Cook in the 97% fiasco, and I believe was his Ph supervisor. He was co-author of another silly psycho-social publication with Cook (endorsement of conspiracy theories, such as NASA faking the Apollo moon landings, was linked to the rejection of climate science). Both have, probably advisedly, retired from the public climate scene, though Cook is still advertised as an Assistant Research Professor in Climate Communication at George Mason University. One wonders how long till the carousel stops.

  • Chris Warren says:

    Is McIntyre Neville’s bedfellow?

    McIntye has been debunked. It is hard to keep track of the number of posts WUWT dedicated to this study, and the statistical wonderboy McIntyre is also energetically producing blog posts.

    See more at:

    https://ourchangingclimate.wordpress.com/2013/03/19/the-two-epochs-of-marcott/

    Notice any upticks????

  • Neville says:

    The IPCC accepts the HAD 4 data as the best of the surface temp data-sets. In the BBC 2010 interview with Jones he showed that all the 4 warming trends from 1850 to 2010 were the same. IOW no stat significant difference in the 4 warming trends over that 160 year period.
    Don’t forget this is just 9 years ago and yet today we are expected to believe that everything has changed because of so called AGW, but there was no difference in the trends up to 2010.
    Then we’ve had these hockey stick graphs that have emerged showing supposed upticks, yet we know that this doesn’t apply to Antarctica or Greenland data, in a number of recent Holocene studies.
    Also SLR is not showing any sudden rise if you look at OZ or the Coral atoll island studies over the last 30 years. And recently Ole Humlum found just 1 to 1.5 mm a year of SLR, or the same as the previous century.
    Here’s that Jones BBC interview in 2010.

    http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/8511670.stm

    • Chris Warren says:

      can Neville be so stupid?

      Of course the warming trend is constant.

      This is what you would expect. So far the increase in temp. is linear. This means the trend is constant.

      If the trend increases (and this may occur) – we are in deep trouble.

      Again Neville has uploaded stuff that disproves his own claims.

      Have we got another Drongo?

      • Boambee John says:

        Can Chris be so stupid?

        There were four separate warming periods covered, interspersed with cooling periods. Despite different CO2 levels, each warming period displayed the same warming trend.

        Far from the increase in temperature being linear, it was a jagged sawtooth pattern.

        • Chris Warren says:

          Quote: “…. it was a jagged sawtooth pattern.”

          So denialists now resort to lies.

          • Boambee John says:

            Or is it the alarmists lying?

            Go look up the graph.

          • Chris Warren says:

            What cherry-picked graph?

          • Boambee John says:

            Chris

            “What cherry-picked graph?”

            First, go find it yourself, you claim to be a red hot researcher. Try Google, or is that too hard for you?

            Second, good to see an open mind. You have not seen the graph, but “know” that it is “cherry picked”.

          • Chris Warren says:

            No graph Boambee is a lying Boambee.

          • Boambee John says:

            Chris is an incompetent Googler!

          • Boambee John says:

            Chris

            I must apologise. You might not be an incompetent Googler.

            I had forgotten that Google deliberately makes hard to find (censors?) information that does not fit the “narrative”. Having “Jones … showed that all the 4 warming trends from 1850 to 2010 were the same. IOW no stat significant difference in the 4 warming trends over that 160 year period” would certainly meet the necessary criteria.

            Perhaps try Duck Duck Go?

          • Chris Warren says:

            So Boambee cannot even use Google to find his cited graph.

            So what graph?

            Or is this another lie just like Australia being a sink.

            Facts drown denialists.

  • spangled drongo says:

    Our resident bed-wetters are in denial that Steve McIntyre completely debunked Mann’s Hockey Stick to the point where Mann still hasn’t provided data because he knows it is dubious.

    And our same bed-wetters are completely incapable of falsifying any of McIntyre’s message.

    But that doesn’t stop the from ridiculing McIntyre.

    Such is their “science”.

    As puerile as our the ABC with Trump.

    And they have the arrogance to accuse others of an “attitude” to science.

    The Hockey Stick and “hide the decline” has been invalidated so many times in so many ways but the believers reconjure the same delusion because that is the only fake data that supports their philosophy.

    Faith in true belief is a wonderful thing. When you can’t argue, just keep repeating what your religion has taught you.

    And the more they can get to sing the chorus the more it beats measureable evidence for them.

  • Stu says:

    Here is quite a good video on the subject of climate change. No, not for SD, Nev and BJ but for any other folk with rational and open minds. The guy speaks very quickly but covers everything quite well. Even Don might find it enlightening particularly the scaling of humans against earth time. In earth time we just appeared and somehow for the last ten thousand years scored the most suitable period for building civilisation. But thIngs are changing, thanks to us, and the earth will go on, probably without us. Scary thought.

    https://youtu.be/GYJDAmDX2dM

    • spangled drongo says:

      What’s your scientific point, stu?

      Your mate Joe makes the same evidence-free assumptions [and ignores the obvious] as you do.

  • Boambee John says:

    spangled drongo

    Duck over to Catallaxy and check the comment number 3128710 on page 4 of the August 10 Open Thread.

    I’m not sure what to make of it, wonder what you think.

    • spangled drongo says:

      Thanks BJ.

      Yes, Nils Axel Morner is perfectly correct. He is arguably the most knowledgeable scientist in the world when it comes to sea levels.

      Whenever a serious audit is done, what it shows is there is nothing happening.

      When we get a GPS chip on every long term tide gauge we will be able to show exactly that but until then the true believers can cherry pick their preferred results.

      Not to mention the satellite “measurements” which are the result of GIGO computers counting dancing angels.

      But those same cherry picking believers will never go and check sea walls and well known data that will give them that factual, inconvenient answer.

      I know families who have been in the little ship maintenance business with boat slips for generations who would kill for some sea level rise as it would improve their business.

      But, if anything, sea levels are falling and they are forced to use more expensive haul-out techniques, like cranes, for deeper draughted vessels.

      It is a pity that around the US coastline there is so much land movement as a result of rebound from 3 mile high ice sheets that melted 10,000 years ago and similar in a lot of the NH but because Australia didn’t have that problem and is generally older and more weathered, its tide gauges are more reliable.

  • Stu says:

    Your little cult is so self serving. Post whatever you like, it only convinces those in the cult. Rational people like Chris just shake the head, such is the bullshit you call facts. Even whackos like Curry don’t agree with all your unsubstantiated bullshit, she mostly tries to retain a semblance of credibility. Have you noticed the mainstream science people now just ignore the rubbish put out by the people you quote. They have more important things to do.

    And stop and think. As stated before, even if your crap was to be proven true, you have lost the debate (not in this tiny space but globally). Even in USA the bulk of states are moving on and ignoring the road blocks of the fossil friendly republicans and Donald. Even your oft quoted IEA is on board, check out their paper on Australia. The car manufacturers are sticking with Obama rules for fuel efficiency and ignoring Trumps EPA. Etc, etc. The game is over.

    So get on board and start discussing the options for mitigation, decarbonisation etc. it would be much more interesting, positive, constructive and less boring than your continual weak attempts at denial.

    • Boambee John says:

      Stu

      Was this inane drivel addressed to me?

      Regardless, the argument that others are being silly, and therefore we should follow, has a lemming-like quality to it that fits in with your general approach.

      Feel free to follow your own advice, however. Lead by example. Start by decarbonising your own life. Solar and wind power only, off grid. EV charged from your own power sources, with carbon offsets to cover the EV’s production. Strict locovore diet, nothing that has been moved by fossil fuelled vehicles. Water collected of your roof, or caried by hand from tbe nearest stream. Septic system (with carbon offsets, of course) or long drop toilet. All waste disposed on site.

      That would be a good start, I will add to the list once you have got this far.

      Let us know how you are going.

      Or do you follow the Augustinian policy, “Make me pure, but not just yet”?

      • Stu says:

        That is plain silly, not worthy of you. The solution requires global action over decades, starting as soon as possible for best outcome not individual actions although it all will help. I happen to believe that the ingenuity of the human race can find the answers. The rate of advance of technology is stupendous and still accelerating, fortunately. But people have to get their heads out of the sand and support action. Do you want to be part of the problem or part of the solution?

        • Boambee John says:

          Stu

          But, but, but, we are regularly told that Australia must lead the way, set an example to the world. I am simply taking that one step further back, to say that Stu (possibly Chris too) should set an example to Australia.

          And “not worthy of (me)”? After some of the things you have written about me, I feel flattered!

          As for that pathetic question “Do you want to be part of the problem or part of the solution?” It is usually a sign that the questioner has no argument to offer, and is trying to bluff their interlocutor.

          You are, however, quite correct about advances in technology, yet you want to commit billions, or even trillions, to a technology that is, in its present state, manifestly inadequate. Is that really sensible?

    • Bryan Roberts says:

      “Even whackos like Curry”

      Judith Curry is a well-respected scientist, was Head of a University Department, runs a successful, and presumably profitable, forecasting business, and has been invited, more than once, to testify before the US Congress. Despite the assessments of DeSmog and Sceptical (silly) Science, hardly the profile of a “whacko”.

      • Stu says:

        Yes she is respected by some, or was, before she set off on the money making train. Testifying before Congress when invited by the dingbat James Inhofe (ex head of Senate Environment Committee) is not exactly a great credit. He also called other great climate scientists like Chris Monckton. She is not as far right as her fellow traveller, Willy Soon, but close. Her current schtick is running a forecasting business which seems more related to weather than climate. But she still tools around with climate change denialists including McIntyre. When claimed academics play with unqualified partners you have to question the credibility, sorry.

        • Boambee John says:

          Stu

          “Yes she is respected by some, or was, before she set off on the money making train.”

          Pot meet kettle. A strong supporter of the renewabaubles industry, which is essentially a vast subsidy harvesting (ie, money making train) business criticises someone for allegedly wanting to make money.

          How many alarmists have made fortunes from their alarmism?

  • Neville says:

    These donkeys couldn’t be more wrong. Other than the adjustments made to HAD 4 after the Jones interview there is clearly nothing to show any AGW at all. The earlier warming trends were adjusted down and the later trends were adjusted up. What a mob of con merchants, but plenty of dopes will fall for it.
    We can point to the SL data to prove our point from the REAL PHYSICAL planet, not fra-dulent adjustments to try and cook the books. The ice-sheet data also proves our case as well and from both Greenland and Antarctica,
    When in doubt real thinkers follow the data not fra-dulent temp adjustments to fool delusional group-thinkers.

    .

    • Chris Warren says:

      Quote – “… there is clearly nothing to show any AGW at all. ”

      Denialists now resort to lies.

      • Boambee John says:

        And alarmists (as usual) to personal abuse.

        • Chris Warren says:

          Crimals are criminals, liars are liars, and denialists are denialists, psychopaths are psychopaths .

          Now they want to censor the rest of us.

          • Boambee John says:

            Chris

            “Crimals are criminals, liars are liars, and denialists are denialists, psychopaths are psychopaths .”

            And slanderers are slanderers, who have no substantive point to make, so throw unsubstantiated abuse instead.

            Where is your evidence that we are trying to censor you?

          • Chris Warren says:

            Actually Neville’s are slanderers.

            But liars are worse.

          • Boambee John says:

            Chris

            Still with the personal abuse.

            It must be fun eating out with you. Suggesting that a different menu item might be tastier would be greeted with “Lies”! Criticising your choice with “Slander”!

  • Boambee John says:

    Chris

    I don’t want to censor you, I prefer that your silliness be openly displayed.

    However, with your perpetual silly comments about “denialists” (really sceptics) you are doing your best to censor us.

  • spangled drongo says:

    “Crimals [sic] are criminals, liars are liars, and denialists are denialists, psychopaths are psychopaths .”

    What would you call people who brainwash and indoctrinate little kiddies and teach them what to think instead of how to think?

  • Bryan Roberts says:

    There are dozens or hundreds of religious nuts running around the streets. We don’t take any notice of them, or joke about them, until we oppose the orthodoxy, and become DENIERS. Sound familiar? The drum-beat in the distance is, unfortunately, all too real.

  • Stu says:

    These words from Mary Robinson, ex President of Ireland and head of UN Human rights body are very interesting.

    “The denial of climate change is not just ignorant, but “malign and evil”, according to Mary Robinson, because it denies the human rights of the most vulnerable people on the planet.

    The former UN high commissioner for human rights and special envoy for climate change also says fossil fuel companies have lost their social licence to explore for more coal, oil and gas and must switch to become part of the transition to clean energy.

    Robinson will make the outspoken attack on Tuesday, in a speech to the Royal Botanical Gardens at Kew in London, which has awarded her the Kew International Medal for her “integral work on climate justice”.

    She also told the Guardian she supports climate protests, including the school strikes for climate founded by “superstar” Greta Thunberg, and that “there is room for civil disobedience as a way of communicating, though we also need hope”.

    Robinson is chair of the Elders, an independent group of global leaders founded by Nelson Mandela that works for human rights. She will say in her speech: “I believe that climate change denial is not just ignorant, it is malign, it is evil, and it amounts to an attempt to deny human rights to some of the most vulnerable people on the planet.”

    “The evidence about the effects of climate change is incontrovertible, and the moral case for urgent action indisputable,” she will say.

    “Climate change undermines the enjoyment of the full range of human rights – from the right to life, to food, to shelter and to health. It is an injustice that the people who have contributed least to the causes of the problem suffer the worst impacts of climate change.”

    Thoughts?

    • Boambee John says:

      Stu

      Well, to quote Mandy Rice-Davies, “She would say that, wouldn’t she?”

      She seems somewhat relaxed about denying the poor of the world access to reliable electric power, while enjoying its benefits herself. Perhaps she could follow the course I suggested you follow?

      “Lead by example. Start by decarbonising your own life. Solar and wind power only, off grid. EV charged from your own power sources, with carbon offsets to cover the EV’s production. Strict locovore diet, nothing that has been moved by fossil fuelled vehicles. Water collected of your roof, or caried by hand from tbe nearest stream. Septic system (with carbon offsets, of course) or long drop toilet. All waste disposed on site.”

      She would have to give up international air travel too.

      “Robinson is chair of the Elders,” Yet another self-selected bunch eager to tell everyone else how to live, while not leading by example?

  • Chris Warren says:

    Shablok is merely spreading denialism to facilitate India’s skyrocketing increase in per-capita CO2 emissions;

    https://www.google.com/publicdata/explore?ds=d5bncppjof8f9_&met_y=sp_dyn_tfrt_in&idim=country:AUS:CAN:AUT&hl=en&dl=en#!ctype=l&strail=false&bcs=d&nselm=h&met_y=en_atm_co2e_pc&scale_y=lin&ind_y=false&rdim=region&idim=country:IND&ifdim=region&hl=en_US&dl=en&ind=false

    coupled with a fertility rate over 2;

    https://www.google.com/publicdata/explore?ds=d5bncppjof8f9_&met_y=sp_dyn_tfrt_in&idim=country:AUS:CAN:AUT&hl=en&dl=en#!ctype=l&strail=false&bcs=d&nselm=h&met_y=sp_dyn_tfrt_in&scale_y=lin&ind_y=false&rdim=region&idim=country:IND&ifdim=region&hl=en_US&dl=en&ind=false

    Given that the world fertility rate is even higher, and global per capita CO2 emissions are “trending up”, it seems we really are throwing the future environment into catastrophe.

    We need the combination of global fertility rate and global per capita emissions rates to fall.

    There is no alternative.

    • Boambee John says:

      Chris

      “coupled with a fertility rate over 2;”

      “We need the combination of global fertility rate and global per capita emissions rates to fall.”

      I have told you before that both India and China have made significant efforts to reduce their birth rates.

      China had some success with its “One Child” policy for some decades. Being a totalitarian state probably assisted, allowing forced sterilisations and abortions to be imposed, but even there public pressure has forced some relaxation of the policy recently.

      India, starting under Indira Gandhi, tried a theoretically “voluntary”scheme, which often involved low level bribery and coercion. Again, public pressure caused the impact to be limited.

      You are only going to get world population growth to reach the low levels of the developed world by either allowing economic development world wide (which almost inevitably will.increae CO2 emissions), or by dictatorial methods, more robust than those used in China.

      Which will you recommend to the “adult conversation between adults” that you seem to favour?

      • Chris Warren says:

        Boambee John

        No evidence – probably more lies.

        • Boambee John says:

          Chris

          Are you totally ignorant of the history of the last 40 or so years? If you are unaware of the issues I mentioned in relation to India and China, it would certainly seem so.

          And, NO, I am not going to waste time attempting to educate you.

          If you say you need references on so basic a subject, one of particular interest to you, then nothing you say has any value.

          Your allegation that I have lied about this is outright slander.

  • Neville says:

    Earlier this year Dr Spencer wrote an article for the Washington Times and answered some of the so called gang of 58 so called scientists silly nonsense.
    These dopes even claimed a CAT 1 hurricane as part of their CAGW delusion, fair dinkum these intellectual runts never cease to amaze us. Don’t forget the USA had a ten year drought of CAT 3 or above hurricanes in recent times. See Dr Ryan Maue’s research.
    This is well worth the time to read and understand what it means to be a serious scientist at the top of his form. Ditto Dr John Christy who has studied temp databases for a long time and knows how to check out and challenge their so called CAGW.

    https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2019/mar/13/what-are-the-opponents-of-donald-trumps-climate-re/

    • Chris Warren says:

      Forget the silly nonsense from the Neville-dopey-runt.

      Here is Judith Curry’s (and co) data on cyclones. Unlike Neville-dopey-runt, she covers all categories of cyclones.

      https://curryja.files.wordpress.com/2016/12/agu_integrityofscience_curry.pdf

      It shows no real increase in number but a strong trend for CAT 4 & 5 to increase as a percentage of events.

      This is why the Neville-dopey-runt only cherry-picked CAT 1 and CAT 3 – a standard denialist trick.

      This is a good example of how denialists falsify science.

      • Boambee John says:

        “Chris Warren
        August 12, 2019 at 9:45 am
        Forget the silly nonsense from the Neville-dopey-runt.”

        Really can’t help yourself with the personal abuse, can you?

    • Stu says:

      I think the last sentence of the article exposes Spencers position and motivation. “ a senior fellow of The Cornwall Alliance for the Stewardship of Creation.”

      What they themselves say about the organisation:

      “The Cornwall Alliance is a network of evangelical Christian scholars–mostly natural scientists, economists, policy experts, theologians, philosophers, and religious leaders–dedicated to educating the public and policymakers about Biblical earth stewardship (men and women working together to enhance the fruitfulness, beauty, and safety of the earth, to the glory of God and the benefit of our neighbors), economic development for the poor (through private property rights, entrepreneurship, free trade, limited government, the rule of law, and access to abundant, affordable, reliable energy), and the gospel of forgiveness of sins and reconciliation with God by grace through faith in the atoning death and vindicating resurrection of Jesus Christ.”

      Of course people can believe what they want but when it starts to get in the way of actual science research and its interpretation it deserves to be called out.

      This is what they do:

      “Our network of theologians, scientists, economists, and other scholars and leaders work together to promote, primarily through education, three things simultaneously:

      Biblical earth stewardship, or “godly dominion”—men and women working together to enhance the fruitfulness, beauty, and safety of the earth to the glory of God and the benefit of our neighbors;
      economic development for the world’s poor; and
      the proclamation and defense of the gospel of Jesus Christ,
      all in a world permeated by an environmental movement whose worldview, theology, and ethics are overwhelmingly anti-Christian, whose science and economics are often poorly done, whose policies therefore often do little good for natural ecosystems but much harm to the world’s poor, and whose religious teachings undermine the fundamental Christian doctrines of God, creation, humanity, sin, and salvation.”

      At least there are opposing christian views so I guess we can call their combined efforts a draw.

      “In July 2006, the Cornwall Alliance published an open letter in response to Christian leaders of the Evangelical Climate Initiative who had, in February of the same year, expressed concern over man-made global warming, urging legislators to consider a cap-and-trade system, promoting new technology and reducing carbon emissions from the burning of fossil fuels. Advisory board member Wayne Grudem was quoted in reply saying, “It does not seem likely to me that God would set up the world to work in such a way that human beings would eventually destroy the earth by doing such ordinary and morally good and necessary things as breathing, building a fire to cook or keep warm, burning fuel to travel, or using energy for a refrigerator to preserve food.”

      So it cant be us because god did not design the earth that way! As a blaspheming nonbeliever might say “jesus christ, can you believe that?”

  • Neville says:

    Best to ignore the resident morons. Here is Dr Spencer’s latest post on the various temp data-bases and there seems to be much more spurious warming over the last few years from ERA5 data.
    Many comments at his blog as they try to thrash out the meaning of this outlier. Certainly a lot more extreme than UAH V 6 data over that period of time. I wonder why, but no big surprise?

    http://www.drroyspencer.com/2019/08/evidence-that-era5-based-global-temperatures-have-spurious-warming/#comment-374644

  • Neville says:

    BTW the York Uni tool also shows that RSS V4 is 1.57 times the trend of UAH V6, since DEC 1978. That’s 0.203c/ dec compared to 0.129 c/ dec. Why is it so? Just asking.

    • Stu says:

      I see our nifty Nev is even playing science posting on the spencer site. Looks like he might be out of his depth with his weird selection of start and end dates for his “analysis”. Rubbery science.

  • Neville says:

    I see now why RSS v 4 is showing so much extra warming and some other data-sets have also chosen to ignore the spurious warming signals. Thanks again to Roy, D.Appell and John Christy.

    http://www.drroyspencer.com/2019/04/uah-rss-noaa-uw-which-satellite-dataset-should-we-believe/

  • Neville says:

    Yet more spurious warming comparing RSS 4 to the other data-sets at York Uni tool site. This is the full satellite data from DEC 1978 to August 2019 and the other surface data for that period.
    In fact the RSS 3 data is only 0.005c ( or 5 thousands of 1 degree c) warmer than the present UAH V 6 data and RSS 4 is the spurious outlier over the last 40 years. It doesn’t even pass the pub test or the smell test.

    RSS 4 0.203 c/ dec
    RSS 3 0.134 c/ dec
    UAH v 6 0.129 c/ dec
    GISS 3 0.174 c/ dec
    GISS 4 0.186 c /dec
    Had 4 Kr 0.187 c /dec
    Had 4sst 0.187 c/ dec

    • Stu says:

      Geez Neville, with such scientific acumen I expect Huntsville will be offering you a job soon, brilliant.

    • Chris Warren says:

      RSS 3 is not current. GISTEMP 3 is deprecated.

      Berkley is around 0.188

      So 0.187 to 0.203 is a tight fit as the range is .016. All these measures are consistent and corroborate each other.

      Spencers data 0.129 is .58 below so is clearly an outlier with spurious cooling.

      Spencers data is inconsistent as many have revealed.

  • Chris Warren says:

    .58 => .058

  • spangled drongo says:

    It’s amazing how the blitherers want to use data and evidence of climate crisis from the most dubious sources which, like the IPCC GCMs that are 95% wrong and getting wronger, are exaggerated by assumption to suit belief rather than reality.

    Why don’t they stick with closer comparison to data that is known to be real-world, ie radiosonde?

    If only the climate crisis believers would accept reality, argue from facts and produce believable evidence, they would improve their cred enormously.

    Even though it would be harder for them to indoctrinate the kiddies.

  • Boambee John says:

    First Bob Brown condemned wind farms as hideous destroyers of the landscape and killers of birds and bats.

    Then Michael Moore made a documentary condemning solar and wind, and hinting at dark corporate profit making.

    Now, Professor Andy Pitman, Director of the ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science, and a Lead Author for the IPCC, has jumped ship.

    In June Professor Andy Pitman quietly dropped a bomb:

    “…as far as the climate scientists know there is no link between climate change and drought.”

    “…there is no reason a priori why climate change should made the landscape more arid.“

    He’s admitting there’s never been a scientific basis for the endless climate drought scares? He went on to say that in Australia, droughts are not increasing, and there’s no drying trend in one hundred years of data. He’s also admitting the models can’t predict extremes in rain either.

    Yes, Chris and Stu, it is via Jo Nova, but she is the messenger. Pitman is the climate scientist who has f@rted in the church of climatology. Who will be next? Given that it is the drought hypothesis that is under attack, perhaps Flannery?

  • Boambee John says:

    For the alarmist deniers.

    The SEI forum: Adapting Climate Science for Business
    Wednesday 19 June, 2019, Sydney Environment Institute (SEI), University of Sydney.

    At 1:11:20

    Professor Andy Pitman:

    “…this may not be what you expect to hear. but as far as the climate scientists know there is no link between climate change and drought.

    That may not be what you read in the newspapers and sometimes hear commented, but there is no reason a priori why climate change should made the landscape more arid.

    If you look at the Bureau of Meteorology data over the whole of the last one hundred years there’s no trend in data. There is no drying trend. There’s been a trend in the last twenty years, but there’s been no trend in the last hundred years, and that’s an expression on how variable Australian rainfall climate is.

    There are in some regions but not in other regions.

    So the fundamental problem we have is that we don’t understand what causes droughts.

    Much more interesting, We don’t know what stops a drought. We know it’s rain, but we don’t know what lines up to create drought breaking rains.”

  • Neville says:

    BJ droughts in OZ are mostly caused by strong el nino events and longer positive IOD events. Here is the BOMs time series graph for rainfall from 1900 to 2018.
    There was a much drier period from 1922 to the late 1940s and even the wet 1950s doesn’t look as impressive on this overall OZ graph. The 1960s had a short dry period but using the moving average graph we can easily see that the period after 1970 has had much higher rainfall, even southern OZ.
    But SW WA and Tassie have had reduced rainfall for the last 30 years and Vic rainfall is starting to reduce because of longer positive and neutral IODs. That occurs when the water off the NW of OZ stays cooler for longer periods of time.
    Just like the period 1992 to 2009 , but did break and change in 2010 and ’11. Much more flooding.
    The MDB floods in 2016 were also caused by a negative IOD or warmer waters off the NW coast. Here’s the BOM anomaly graph including a 7 year moving average. This makes it much easier to understand.
    Don’t forget the period from 1895 to 1902 was very dry and called the FED drought.

    http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/climate/change/timeseries.cgi?graph=rranom&area=aus&season=0112&ave_yr=6

  • Neville says:

    BJ here is the discovery and study summary about the IOD from Uni NSW in 2009. The following year switch caused flooding from the negative IOD in 2010 and ’11. I just hope it changes in the next short while again. IOW we need some warmer water over the NW of OZ ASAP.

    https://www.science.unsw.edu.au/news/indian-ocean-causes-big-dry-drought-mystery-solved

  • Boambee John says:

    Silence from the alarmists? Trying to work out how to frame Pitman as not a “real” climate scientist?

    Or just burying tbeir heads in the sand and denying that anything has happened?

  • Peter Lang says:

    The link to the article in the Times of India is broken. Doe anyone have the link? If so could you please post it here.

  • Neville says:

    BJ I should have referred to the latest ENSO and IOD wrap from the BOM. Things don’t look good for a break in the drought , with both ENSO and IOD at the moment.
    A change to La Nina and a negative IOD would be very welcome by many graziers, farmers and govts etc. We can only hope. Here is the latest BOM wrap.

    http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/

  • Neville says:

    In 2015 Dr Hansen called out the Paris circus as BS and fra-d and since then some other lefties have started to doubt their long held belief in mitigation of their so called CAGW. Michael Moore is one recent example and Bob Brown doesn’t like wind farms in his area of Tassie at all.
    But let’s look at the evidence for mitigation over the last 30 years. In 1990 co2 levels were about 350 ppm or McKibben and Hansen’s agreed upper level to aim for in their fight against so called CAGW.
    The OECD countries emissions have flat-lined for a long period and are now about the same as their 1990 levels, but the non OECD led by China, India etc have allowed their co2 emission to soar since 1990 and they are still building big numbers of coal fired stations.
    African countries also want industries and a higher standard of living and will build huge numbers of coal fired stns if they have the finance to do so. And total African population is now 1300 mil or similar in size to China and India.
    I think China will supply that future finance and design and build those new CF stations and perhaps gas and nuclear as well.
    But co2 levels have increased by about 60 ppm since 1990, because of the non OECD countries co2 emissions and there is clearly no evidence that the OECD countries can reduce those levels for a very long time. In fact co2 levels have risen by 9 ppm since 2015 or by 2.25 ppm/ year.
    Everyone understands that voters in OECD countries have no stomach for paying higher and higher electricity prices for a guaranteed ZERO return today, tomorrow or by 2100. The OZ election has proved the point and Qld swung strongly behind Adani and the Coalition govt.
    But that big jump in co2 levels since 1990 should make any rational person understand the folly of their so called mitigation of their so called CAGW. Hansen was correct, it is all “just BS and fra-d”.
    But then again who cares if you’re a fantasist living in your fantasy world? And anyway they couldn’t care less about simple sums and science because it’s the politics that drives them on.

  • Boambee John says:

    If the models were wrong about drought, and can’t handle clouds, what use are they? Do the projections of future disaster have any validity?

    • spangled drongo says:

      BJ, in this crazy, mixed up world with its post modernist promoters, eco-warriors and leftist elites wanting to eradicate the things that work yet have never worked in their lives [After arriving in their private jets, mega yachts and sports cars, delegates were treated to a lecture on climate change by Prince Harry, who delivered it in his bare feet] validity is the last thing considered.

      • Neville says:

        Geeeezzzz SD I would love to have a transcript of his speech, I’m sure it was packed full of the latest data and evidence about their so called CAGW and co2 levels etc. SARC.

    • Chris Warren says:

      Boambee John

      No evidence as usual.

      • spangled drongo says:

        Tell us how the models are right about drought and how well they handle clouds, blith.

        You should have these details at your fingertips seeing how you preach this gospel on a daily basis.

        What’s that you say?

        You simply don’t know?

        Well we’ve been telling you for years that you have no measurable evidence.

        But now you reckon we need the evidence to prove you don’t have the evidence?

        How about you just put up or shut up!

        What a non-funny joke you are.

        • Boambee John says:

          SD

          Chris has put himself in the position where he has to either:

          Argue that the models are brilliant and fantastically accurate, in which case Pitman, head of the climate CRC and an IPCC lead author, doesn’t know what he is talking about; or

          The models are useless (at least as regards drought), but a bunch of top climate scientists independently of the models, looked at the base data, and concluded that droughts are linked to climate change, and Pitman has said, in effect, that they got it completely wrong. Hence climate scientists are not, contra Chris, infallible.

      • Boambee John says:

        Chris

        Incapable of even finding evidence when it is right in front of your eyes, as usual.

        See my post at 2013 yesterday.

        • Chris Warren says:

          So no evidence then.

          Typical.

          • Boambee John says:

            Chris

            The Chris definition of “evidence”: material which supports his prejudices.

            I guess you have now consigned Pitman (head at the CRC on climate, and an IPCC lead author) to the category of denialist, whose publications are now unreliable (un-published?) because he has said the unsayable?

            You are aware, are you, that 1984 was a warning, not a “How To” guide?

  • spangled drongo says:

    Consensus and popularity are wot count with brainless blitherers.

    Consensus and popularity are not authority or validity but that is how the algorithm sees it.

    https://www.cfact.org/2019/08/10/how-google-discriminates-against-conservatives-and-skeptics/

  • spangled drongo says:

    This is what happens even in the Union of Concerned Scientists if you don’t stick to the consensus and instead try telling the truth:

    https://realclimatescience.com/2019/08/banned-for-posting-temperature-data/

  • spangled drongo says:

    Our stu will be so relieved to know this; er – won’t he?

    After all the blurb by the Hot Gospel preachers in the MSM and the bed-wetting websites it seems the Danish climate body wrongly reported Greenland heat record.

    The Danish Meteorological Institute, which has a key role in monitoring Greenland’s climate, last week reported a shocking August temperature of between 2.7C and 4.7C at the Summit weather station, which is located 3,202m above sea level at the centre of the Greenland ice sheet, generating a spate of global headlines.

    But on Wednesday it posted a tweet saying that a closer look had shown that monitoring equipment had been giving erroneous results.

    “Was there record-level warmth on the inland ice on Friday?” it said. “No! A quality check has confirmed out suspicion that the measurement was too high.”

    By combining measurements with observations from other weather stations, the DMI has now estimated that the temperature was closer to -2C.

    https://www.thelocal.dk/20190808/danish-climate-body-wrongly-reported-greenland-heat-record

  • spangled drongo says:

    More info for stu on the Greenland surface temperature fakery at the bakery.

    Seems like the [pre adjusted] 1930s temps were warmer than current:

    https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.files.wordpress.com/2016/09/screenhunter_4623sep-2612-14.jpg

  • Chris Warren says:

    More data – 400 ppm is to glacial minimum as glacial minimum is to glacial maximum.

    http://archive.is/vS0r9

    500 ppm cannot be far off.

    • spangled drongo says:

      Try living in the real world of science, blith.

      Instead of the one belonging to the scientifically illiterate castropharians of ‘Extinction Rebellion’.

      A dozen new papers attest to the substantially positive impact that CO2 fertilization and warming has had on the biosphere.

      Due especially to the rise in CO2 concentrations, 52% of the globe’s vegetated lands have shown statistically significant greening/gross primary production trends since 1981, whereas just 12% of vegetated areas have been browning. CO2’s greening effect has been underestimated by 60% with outdated models:

      https://notrickszone.com/2019/08/12/new-paper-co2-rise-warming-are-91-responsible-for-the-earths-accelerated-greening-trend-since-1990/

    • Boambee John says:

      “More data – 400 ppm is to glacial minimum as glacial minimum is to glacial maximum.”

      Can we have this translated into something even vaguely resembling coherent English?

  • Bryan Roberts says:

    Let’s get realistic, just for a moment. What would Greta Thunberg have done, had she not received this invitation to make a political point by travelling (free) across the Atlantic on an environmentally completely pointless, carbon fibre racing yacht? Swum? Paddled a coracle? She would have flown, because not to attend would have been unthinkable…and nobody would have noticed. She is actually just another celebrity on a private yacht. I also suspect that a yacht belonging to Monaco royalty probably has a motor.

    • spangled drongo says:

      Bryan, if it is a modern swing-keel yacht, not only does it have a motor but it has to be running the whole time it is are sailing.

  • Neville says:

    To be fair about Andy Pitman’s statement, he really doesn’t know what he’s talking about. Overall OZ is a wetter place since the late 1940s and much wetter since 1970.
    The BOM data clearly shows this to be the case and what’s more we know why some years receive more rainfall and some less. El nino years generally are drought years and la nina years generally have higher rainfall and floods.
    Ditto for the IOD, where positive IODs produces less rainfall below the Broome to Wollongong line and negative IODs produce more rainfall and flooding.
    So generally we do know what causes droughts and flooding rains over OZ, and it amazes me that very few people seem to understand this NATURAL part of our climate.

    • Chris Warren says:

      Neville

      OZ is wetter, but not “much” wetter.

      This is the result of increased water vapour in the atmosphere due to increased evaporation from global warming.

      The heights after the 1970’s are a result of increased water vapour after 1940.

      This is not necessarily only a natural part of our climate.

      • Boambee John says:

        Chris

        “This is the result of increased water vapour in the atmosphere due to increased evaporation from global warming.”

        So you agree with Pitman that GW does not cause drought? Even if you claim he offered no evidence?

        Are you going to tell Tim Flummery? And those state governments he frightened into building desalination plants that cannot operate without reliable power?

        • Chris Warren says:

          There are other factors as well such as moving precipitation from southern states and increasing rain in northern regions. Also land is warming itself which can generate excess evaporation at different localities. The excess water vapour in the air has come from the land as well as the sea.

          So Tim Flannery and State governments are right to be concerned and they should be prepared for future problems with water supply.

          • Boambee John says:

            Chris

            They still need reliable power to run the desal plants.

            In their present state of development solar, wind and batteries can’t do the job.

            If you insist on making stupid, inconsistent, statements, then don’t be surprised if nothing at all that you say is taken seriously.

          • Chris Warren says:

            Freudian slip there. You are shouting at a mirror,

          • Boambee John says:

            In which your face is plainly visible?

          • Chris Warren says:

            Boambee John does not know how mirrors work!

          • Boambee John says:

            Like your thinking, I have a magical mirror.

            It always shows stupidity. That’s why your face always appears.

            I think it uses pixie dust, a key tool in the alarmists’ inventory.

          • Chris Warren says:

            Poor ol’ Boambee John, full of magic and pixie dust…

            That explains things somewhat.

          • Boambee John says:

            Chris

            I have been insulted by experts.

            Your pathetic efforts are typical of your general incompetence. I hope you are better at climate science, though your efforts here suggest not.

            Have you thought of taking up macrame?

          • Chris Warren says:

            You certainly deserve to be insulted by experts.

          • Boambee John says:

            Chris is reduced to “Nyah, nyah, nyah, your mother wears army boots.

            Sad!

          • Chris Warren says:

            You are the one projecting that chant.

    • spangled drongo says:

      Neville, how lucky we are to have our blith to quantify the minor details for us.

      Pity he doesn’t have a clue about that 1970s peak.

      • Neville says:

        SD as usual his comment is absurd and anyway his good mate Flannery and the OZ C Council have told us that overall OZ will have worse droughts because of their CAGW. No mention of ENSO or IOD.
        But this donkey also inferred a while back that co2 works like pixie dust and can create more rainfall over most of OZ and yet less rainfall over other parts of the country.
        But severe lack of logic and reason is his trade mark, plus he doesn’t care about data and evidence. Just see their response when we point out that nearly all recent increases in co2 emissions have come from China , India and the non OECD. They just don’t understand simple facts and data.

    • Boambee John says:

      Neville

      “To be fair about Andy Pitman’s statement, he really doesn’t know what he’s talking about.”

      Your comment is tautological. He is a climate scientist, ergo ….

  • Ian MacCulloch says:

    An excellent article.

    A couple of points. Today’s sea levels and overall conditions would not be considered optimal. Sea levels are constantly changing in a band of +16 metres to -140 metres with flat spots in between for extended periods. Rather when mega fauna and mastodons roamed the planet would be so called optimal.

    Still life is what you make of it. Dealing with the current environment to produce for the world’s population is creating an optimal result in the conditions bestowed upon us.

    This recent article in the South China Morning Post dated 11 August 2019 in the GWPF newsletter throws some interesting light on 500 year cycles in northern China. In the article the researchers are warning of global cooling.

    “Their findings confirmed an earlier study by a separate team of Chinese scientists, published by online journal Scientific Reports in 2014, which first detected the 500-year cyclical pattern of China’s summer monsoons and linked it to solar activity. Wu said the latest study, with 10,000 years’ worth of new data, not only helped to draw a more complete picture of the 500-year cycle, but also revealed a previously unknown mechanism behind the phenomenon, which suggested the impact of the sun on the Earth’s climate may be greater than previously thought. –Stephen Chen”

    “Chinese Scientists Warn Of Global Cooling, Impact Of Solar Activity”
    https://thegwpf.us4.list-manage.com/track/click?u=c920274f2a364603849bbb505&id=e0604026e4&e=5188aac8bb

  • Neville says:

    Here is the latest data for co2 levels at Mauna Loa Hawaii and this data shows that GLOBAL co2 levels have increased by 3 ppm over the last 12 months. OH and that’s about 3 times Australia’s TOTAL co2 emissions in 2019 and about 30 times NZ’s TOTAL emissions. BTW co levels in 1950 were about 311 ppm and about 328 ppm by 1970 and about 350 ppm by 1990.
    And co2 levels were about 280 ppm in 1800.

    https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/

  • Neville says:

    Our resident donkey has told us that the extra warming in the NH could be caused by extra co2 emissions.
    But the latest data shows that Mauna Loa levels are only 4.44 ppm higher than Cape Grim in Tasmania. Geeezzzz this fool really thinks this is a super potent trace gas.
    Yet UAH shows ZERO warming in Antarctica for 40 years and about 0.1c/ decade for SH and 0.15 c/dec for the NH over the same period. And for decades we’ve had a warm phase AMO.

    • Boambee John says:

      Nevile

      When is the AMO due to shift?

      • Neville says:

        BJ I don’t know,could be next week or in a year or two or 5 or 10 years. Some scientists have speculated that it has already started to shift to the cool phase. Time will tell, but Greenland seemed to lag the rest of the Arctic temp response after the present warm phase started.
        Dr Curry thinks the next shift could start soon, but who knows? But I’d trust her opinion ahead of any of the alarmist crowd.

  • Neville says:

    BJ here is an interesting study by 2 UK scientists in The Conversation in May 2015. They seem to think the shift had started but after another 4 years ( now 2019) I’m not sure they were correct.
    But I keep hearing that nth Atlantic temps have been dropping for a while, so who knows? Time will tell.

    http://theconversation.com/the-atlantic-is-entering-a-cool-phase-that-will-change-the-worlds-weather-42497

  • spangled drongo says:

    Pacific Islands are actually growing but are using CC to squeeze Australia for more money.

    But that doesn’t stop our blithering ABC from putting in the boot and not asking the obvious questions.

    Crazy climate politics of the Pacific with small island nations trying to blame their climate woes on Australia, while taking our aid and cosying up to China.

    Whereas in reality China’s carbon dioxide emissions are growing each year by about our annual total, producing roughly 20 times our emissions this year, 21 times next year and so on. If Pacific island nations are worried about carbon emissions, then it is their Chinese suitors that deserve their ire.

    The Prime Minister of Tuvalu appeared on ABC Radio National this morning and scoffed at Australia’s latest $500 million climate change package for Pacific Island nations.

    Enele Sopoaga said it seemed like “an excuse not to stop coal mining not to reduce greenhouse gases into the atmosphere” — seemingly asking Australia to shut down our largest export industry. “It is just immoral,” Mr Sopoaga added, “it is almost like giving money to people to shut up, not to talk about their rights to survive, it is the right of the people of Tuvalu and small islands to survive.”

    None of these facts about what is happening on Tuvalu, or what Australia is doing to reduce its greenhouse emissions, or how this contrasts with China’s massive emissions growth, or how even if Australia was shut down, global greenhouse emissions would continue to rise and therefore there would be no benefit to Tuvalu, none of these facts were put to Tuvalu’s Prime Minister by the ABC. Then Labor’s foreign policy spokeswoman Penny Wong called a press conference and supported the Pacific island nation attacks against Australia.

    Why do the facts not matter? Whose side are these people on?

    Chris Kenny in the Australian:

    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/commentary/abc-fails-to-ask-questions-on-climate-change-to-tuvalu-pm/news-story/96b3e158dfed36aa7cc616b65bac7a5b

  • Stu says:

    There is an interesting article in Nature about the distortion in communication by contrarians versus scientists. The article speaks for itself.

    This is the abstract:

    “We juxtapose 386 prominent contrarians with 386 expert scientists by tracking their digital footprints across ?200,000 research publications and ?100,000 English-language digital and print media articles on climate change. Projecting these individuals across the same backdrop facilitates quantifying disparities in media visibility and scientific authority, and identifying organization patterns within their association networks. Here we show via direct comparison that contrarians are featured in 49% more media articles than scientists. Yet when comparing visibility in mainstream media sources only, we observe just a 1% excess visibility, which objectively demonstrates the crowding out of professional mainstream sources by the proliferation of new media sources, many of which contribute to the production and consumption of climate change disinformation at scale. These results demonstrate why climate scientists should increasingly exert their authority in scientific and public discourse, and why professional journalists and editors should adjust the disproportionate attention given to contrarians.”

    Here is the link

    https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-019-09959-4

    • Boambee John says:

      Stu

      Poor petals. Let them cry in their (macrobiotic) beer.

      • Stu says:

        Clearly you did not read the article. You guys depend on the comic book characters to promote your case. Contrarianism flourishes only in the light weight, flimsy, tabloid space.

        “.. the proliferation of new media sources, many of which contribute to the production and consumption of climate change disinformation at scale. “. The key word here is consumption, that is you.

        The real players are getting on with the science while your guys tool around with fringe dwellers and “heavy weight media players” like Bolt, Jones and Hadley. Those guys don’t even need facts, their adoring fans just suck up the rubbish. Just look at your own posts. How often do you quote anyone other than a fringe player like Nova or Watts? Rarely any real science, just misquotes and cherry harvesting by these charlatans. So it goes on. And BTW where is this grand solar minimum and cooling planet you keep promising us?

        • spangled drongo says:

          The fact that the delusionaries need such articles from Time mag to boost their self esteem, really says it all.

          It just shows how easily our blitherers here are led down this puerile pathway which turns a scientific discussion into a tribal war.

          But when you can’t produce any evidence you have to resort to any weapon you can grab.

          Time to grow up, stu!

  • Boambee John says:

    Stu

    Yes, I did read those words. The alarmists, who claim to be winning the battle of ideas, now admit that it is not actually going too well.

    Hence my comment about tears in the beer.

    You have been prominent in claiming victory, but post an item suggesting that the claim might be exaggerated. Maybe all is not well in alarmism?

    As for grand solar minima, the only forecast I make about climate is that it has always changed, and will continue to do so.

    When can I expect a tropical jungle outside my front door?

    • Chris Warren says:

      The jungle will be over your grave but there may be no one to notice.

      • Boambee John says:

        Chris

        I take it that your firm forecast is that NSW will look like the Kokoda Track within 30 years.

        Gutsy call.

        • Chris Warren says:

          More lies from Boambee John.

          • Boambee John says:

            More lies and slander from Chris Warren.

            I (jocularly) asked Stu “When can I expect a tropical jungle outside my front door?”

            Chris responded “The jungle will be over your grave but there may be no one to notice.”

            I responded “I take it that your firm forecast is that NSW will look like the Kokoda Track within 30 years.”

            Chris called this “More lies”.

            Now watch Chris engage in bureaucratic double speak and obfuscation, to claim that the words he used did not mean what they mean.

            Chris does not understand the difference between lies and sarcasm.

          • Chris Warren says:

            You lied,

            I never made any such forecast.

            Squirm as much as you like.

          • Boambee John says:

            “Chris Warren
            August 15, 2019 at 11:42 am
            The jungle will be over your grave but there may be no one to notice.”

            0Lease parse this statement out of existence.

          • Boambee John says:

            Please parse …

  • Stu says:

    You guys exhibit classic cognitive dissonance. You say you read the article, which is well researched, documented and explained, yet you choose to ignore the key finding. Proper science is well represented in main stream outlets, while denier rubbish is over represented given it is mostly false. It is in the out there rubbish press that the over representation of non science is greatest and the point is that solid science and scientists don’t actually want to play in that space. Real, publishing scientists just stick to normal channels.

    BTW, did you see the analysis of the Exxon/Mobil discovery disclosure material. They show that over 80% of Exxon employed scientists, for thirty years, have found that burning oil has caused global warming. But of course the company suppressed the findings, until now under legal threat. The court cases continue.

    When you stop and think about that 80% is much more significant then the 97% that you continue to challenge despite multiple papers reaching the same conclusion. Oh well cog diss eh.

    Your methods and arguments continue to be classic grafts from the tobacco smoke play book and bear a striking resemblance to the repetitive drivel flowing from Trumps mouth. Political scientists will have a field day soon analysing the denier movements rituals and Trump. Meantime you need to come up with something new, your attack points are stale and dated.

    • Boambee John says:

      Stu

      You acknowledge that you are not scientifically knowledgeable, yet state with absolute confidence that “denier rubbish is over represented given it is mostly false.” Dare to consider the possibility that no one in this debate has absolute knowledge. Those who claim to have such are bluffing, and you have fallen for it.

      Your comment that “the point is that solid science and scientists don’t actually want to play in that space. Real, publishing scientists just stick to normal channels” shows a level of delusion that shocks even me. The number of “climate scientists” who are media tarts is quite high. Still, if you say that Mann, Hansen, Karoly et al are not “solid scientists”, far be it for me to disagree!

      And speaking of cognitive dissonance, remember that you have loudly proclaimed that the “science” does not matter because the public is fully on side. Perhaps not?

    • Boambee John says:

      Stu

      PS, thanks for the free psychological assessment. Are you qualified to make it without a personal interview? Is it ethical to do so?

      “You guys exhibit classic cognitive dissonance.”

  • Neville says:

    Here’s some more climate porn for the religious fanatics to feast on. This BBC DA special features all the extremists they could hope for , but it has one huge problem, it doesn’t tell the viewers where the increase in extra co2 emissions have come from since 1990.
    No mention is made of the DEVELOPING countries and the soaring emissions from those countries plus the soaring emissions to come in the decades ahead.
    They also neglect to tell us that the OECD countries have reduced their co2 emissions to 1990 levels, So we know this is just more propaganda against the wealthy countries and not about mitigating their so called CAGW.
    Also the RS and NAS report is clear that there will be no change in co2 levels or temp for a thousand years or longer and this wasn’t mentioned either. Even if we cease all human co2 emissions today.
    Here are the 2 links.

    https://iview.abc.net.au/show/climate-change-the-facts

    https://royalsociety.org/topics-policy/projects/climate-change-evidence-causes/question-20/

  • Stu says:

    BJ, “the only forecast I make about climate is that it has always changed, and will continue to do so“. As I told my crazy sister-in-law, that is the lamest of statements to make about this subject, and which actually displays a real lack of knowledge and sense. She no longer says it, and relies on slightly stronger arguments, though still lame.

    The earth is 4.5 billion years old and has undergone many astronomical (including orbital), and tectonic changes that have caused the climate to change. Scientists know and understand all that and they know none of those things is causing change now. They do know that pumping CO2 into the air is having an impact.

    I am surprised you have not used her other lame excuse of not knowing next weeks weather therefore being unable to predict it thirty years out. As you would know, one is weather, the other is climate.

    Did you see god at work again this week? The great believer in miracles, Scomo, has watered down the communique from Tuvalu. Nice work, not.

    • Boambee John says:

      Stu

      Your “crazy” sister in law is a smart woman. Do you think it possible that after her opinions were treated with contempt by you, she might have made the entirely sensible decision that there is no point debating with a closed mind?

      You actually believe that scientists have sufficiently detailed knowledge of the past 4.5 billion years that they can state absolutely that none of the “many astronomical (including orbital), and tectonic changes that have caused the climate to change” is causing change now”. Only “pumping CO2 into the air is having an impact” now. Did they find another of those magical pine trees to tell them that?

      As for predictions 30 years out, any fool can make such a prediction, be it about weather, climate, economics or international politics. The trick is in getting the prediction right. I have yet to see any evidence, let alone convincing evidence, that this is possible. Go back 30 years and check some of the predictions made by climate scientists. Tell us (honestly) how many were right, how many were wrong.

      Once you do that, I have a bridge to sell you.

  • spangled drongo says:

    The all-wise stu blithers:

    “The earth is 4.5 billion years old and has undergone many astronomical (including orbital), and tectonic changes that have caused the climate to change. Scientists know and understand all that and they know none of those things is causing change now. They do know that pumping CO2 into the air is having an impact.”

    But they still can’t quantify the reason any change that has occurred, nominate the specific physics involved or the degree to which it is responsible so therefore can’t provide any directly related, measureable evidence to support this “knowledge”.

    All they know is what they think they know and as their GIGO GCMs keep confirming, like you, they don’t have a clue.

    And even stu’s conviction that “consensus” is the evidence [LOL], he hasn’t even got that right:

    “Labor failed to win any seats north of Queensland’s southeast corner at the federal election. This
    highlighted the divide between those in the fairyland inner suburbs of Australia’s cities and those
    of us who live in reality-land, where much of the country’s income is generated from mining and
    agriculture.”

  • Stu says:

    “But they still can’t quantify the reason any change that has occurred, nominate the specific physics involved or the degree to which it is responsible so therefore can’t provide any directly related, measureable evidence to support this “knowledge”.

    You have to be kidding. That is such a ridiculous comment it requires no other response than a long laugh. Get real.

    Your cult has a wonderful time with such rubbish. I remind you again religion is based on faith which is what you use when you have no facts. It is you with the religion no matter how you try to spin the reverse.

    • spangled drongo says:

      “…..it requires no other response than a long laugh.”

      Well stuey-luv, why not surprise us all, then, with your factual, empirical evidence?

      You know, the stuff we have been asking you continuously for, for years to support your climate crisis claims?

      That stuff you are yet to provide but now fallaciously claim you already have?

      We’re still waiting to see it.

      So how about you just stop with your dissimulation and produce your evidence?

      Or admit you are a liar and have never had it.

    • Boambee John says:

      Stu

      “I remind you again religion is based on faith which is what you use when you have no facts. It is you with the religion no matter how you try to spin the reverse.”

      Pot, meet kettle.

      You claim to have the killer evidence, but despite regularly posting what might tactfully be described as anecdotal “evidence”, on this occasion, you have nothing but (forced) laughter to offer.

  • Chris Warren says:

    Denialists often claim that todays changes are natural and often occurred in the past.

    This is a lie.

    There was only ever 400ppm of CO2 in the atmosphere over 2 million years ago. Long before our species emerged.

    So we are experiencing a “one in two million year event” and denialists refuse to look at the data or science.

    But if present trends continue, future generations, possibly those now in creche, will have to deal with a “one in 50 million year event” and still denialists will lie about it being natural.

    All denialists should wash their eyes with this: https://www.nature.com/articles/ncomms14845/figures/4

    Denialists be damned.

    • spangled drongo says:

      Nobody is claiming that current CO2 levels “are natural and often occurred in the past”, blith.

      You are just making that up.

      But you might tell us, if you can, just exactly what is happening that is different today, with current CO2 levels over 400 ppm that has not happened in the past 80 centuries of the Holocene with CO2 levels below 300 ppm?

    • Boambee John says:

      “if present trends continue”

      The models will show them continuing, it is one of the basic assumptions.

      GIGO.

  • spangled drongo says:

    Good article in the Australian showing how these “scientists” and social progressives operate:

    Reef science may be beyond the latte crowd.

    By PETER RIDD

    Labor failed to win any seats north of Queensland’s southeast corner at the federal election. This
    highlighted the divide between those in the fairyland inner suburbs of Australia’s cities and those
    of us who live in reality-land, where much of the country’s income is generated from mining and
    agriculture.

    The backtracking by Queensland Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk on the Adani coalmine
    indicates Labor realises it is in serious trouble with the forthcoming state elections. But it is facing
    another Adani-like debacle with its Great Barrier Reef protection legislation that will go before
    parliament this month.
    This legislation will drastically affect sugar cane, cattle and every major agricultural industry
    along the Queensland coast. Fertiliser and pesticide application will be restricted, massive fines
    will be applied for transgressions and a huge bureaucratic burden will be imposed on farmers.
    For them it will be like having a government official continuously sitting in the tractor next to
    them.
    It will strangle the sugar industry that is already struggling – the Mossman sugar mill north of
    Cairns is facing collapse and recently needed tens of millions of dollars of government cash to
    continue. When the mill collapses, the farms go with it.
    The motivation of the new reef legislation is laudable: to save the reef. But, as with Adani, much
    of the science behind this legislation is poorly quality assured and unreliable. In north
    Queensland we could never understand why the Adani mine was targeted as a reef killer when it
    is no different from the thousands of coalmines around the world.

    The carbon dioxide produced by burning coal goes around the world irrespective of where it is
    mined or where it is burned. Opposition to Adani, to us regionals, Iooked like a way for a city
    dweller to feel good by pretending to do something about the reef.
    Some of the “science” on which the new reef legislation is based looks very dubious.
    For example, mud from farms is supposed to be killing the reef yet data shows that there is
    almost no mud whatsoever on the outer reef where 99 per cent of the corals live. It is all pristine
    white coral sand.
    Pesticides from farms are generally not detectable on the outer reef even with the most sensitive
    scientific equipment.
    To get over the inconvenient problem that the main reef, which is often more than 100km from
    shore, is obviously totally unaffected by farming, scientists focus on the “inner reef”. These are
    the tiny fringing reefs close to land that have less than I per cent of the coral. Unlike the offshore
    reefs, they are occasionally affected by river water in floods. But even here, work by
    sedimentologists across 25 years finds that mud from farms represents an exposure about 100
    times less than from natural mechanisms. The natural mechanism is resuspension of mud by
    waves stirring the seabed, especially in strong southeasterly winds and cyclones.
    A similar argument applies for the nutrient pollution by farm fertiliser. About 100 times more
    nutrients cycle through the system naturally. And pesticides are at worst in extremely low
    concentrations on these near-shore reefs. The water quality of the reef is actually excellent and
    determined by the vast quantities of sparkling pure water that flows into and out of the reef from
    the Pacific Ocean.
    Because the “science” has not been checked, tested or replicated properly, it is hard to tell what is
    solid and what is not. We may well be focusing on the wrong issues that face the reef and wasting
    resources to protect it while damaging every major industry in the north.
    Many of us outside the inner suburbs know that much of what we hear about the reef may not
    be true – just like Adani. The viability of many small towns along the coast is in jeopardy. We
    need far mole rigorous checking of the science before we implement new legislation that will
    add huge costs to some of our major industries for probably little or no environmental benefit.
    This is not denial; it is common sense.

    We need a team of genuinely independent scientists to audit the science. There are many
    excellent scientists who can do this audit and who are outside the scientific “bubble” that is
    responsible for advising the government.
    Let’s hold off for the moment on new rules that will strangle industry.
    It also may stop the state government from making another Adani-sized mistake.
    Peter Ridd is an independent scientist who was unlawfully dismissed from lames Cook University in
    TownsviIIe.

  • spangled drongo says:

    little Greta virtue-signals with hypocritical back-up:

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EB8T5LjWwAADPuh.png:large

  • dlb says:

    Don, how does it feel not making it into the top 386 of climate contrarians?
    Jo Nova and Jennifer Marohasy made it.
    See Judith Curry’s blog or the list from the Nature paper at http://climatlas.com/tropical/media_cloud_list.txt

  • Stu says:

    “You claim to have the killer evidence, but despite regularly posting what might tactfully be described as anecdotal “evidence”, on this occasion, you have nothing but (forced) laughter to offer.

    Rubbish, I wont bother to quote it here but have a look at the entirety of scientific research on the subject. Go and have a look beyond Jo and Wattsie, moron.

    Chris and I are working from the side of established science. The pressure is on you turkeys to counteract that evidence, and so far you have continued to fail dismally.

    • spangled drongo says:

      And so the blind, brain washed, bed-wetting, blithering, bull artists take another leap of faith into the future.

      Not only are their assumption based GCMs’ prediction errors in their “settled science” very visible for all to see but they now claim their [non-existent] facts and evidence are likewise.

      They tend to make internet scammers look reputable.

      Stu, your next lot of evidence will be your first.

      Just give us your summary of this cryptic jewel instead of spouting your “entirety of scientific research”.

    • Boambee John says:

      Stu

      You and Chris are on the side of “established science”.

      I guess that means that in earlier eras you would have believed that the sun and planets orbited around the earth, and accepted the Phlogiston Theory?

    • Boambee John says:

      Stu

      “I wont bother to quote it here but have a look at the entirety of scientific research on the subject.”

      You have read “the entirety of scientific research on the subject.” Very impressive. What did you do after breakfast?

  • Stu says:

    It is a waste of time going back and forth on this. To back up your and your ilks flimsy claims you say “science is not decided by consensus”. Think about that. It is a tacit admission on your part that there is a great body of science out there, a consensus, about the existence, causes and effects of AGW.

    So if you want evidence, once again I say go to ANY of the worlds met offices, scientific institutes etc and you will find it. On the other side when I wish to check on the counter claims the only stuff to find is in bodgy websites run by amateurs or discredited scientists.

    As for the GCM’S, if you look you will find they are not the evidence but the predictors of where things will take us. Part of their proof point is that they have been fairly accurate and also align with past actual events.

    Stop wasting everyone’s time with your claim of no evidence. The onus is on you to refute the evidence for AGW.

    I am off to golf, where even the kangaroos make more sense than you. Cheers.

    • spangled drongo says:

      “So if you want evidence, once again I say go to ANY of the worlds met offices, scientific institutes etc and you will find it.”

      We’ve been doing that for years, stu, and the best we can get is the fabrication, cheating and manipulation we have presented you with many times.

      “The onus is on you to refute the evidence for AGW.”

      You really regard that fakery as “evidence” simply because it is “consensus” hey?

      If you had told us years ago that this is all you have, we could have been laughing all this time.

      But it all starts to make sense now.

      Now that you finally admit that GIGO is all you’ve got then it’s quite understandable that you must recruit a mentally retarded, brain-washed little girl to make your case.

  • Boambee John says:

    Stu

    “As for the GCM’S, if you look you will find they are not the evidence but the predictors of where things will take us.”

    Chris (see above) begs to differ with you.

    “Stu-penduous accuracy”!

    PS, haven’t we been told that golf courses are bad for the climate and the environment? Vandal!

  • Boambee John says:

    Stu

    “Go back 30 years and check some of the predictions made by climate scientists. Tell us (honestly) how many were right, how many were wrong.”

    How did you go with this research? Did you find the 50 million climate refugees who were predicted to appear by 2010? How is the temperature going against the projection of a conservative 3 to 7 degrees by 2020?

    I can still accept your offers on that bridge.

  • Stu says:

    “How did you go with this research? Did you find the 50 million climate refugees who were predicted to appear by 2010? How is the temperature going against the projection of a conservative 3 to 7 degrees by 2020?“

    Bullshit claims on your part. Presumably cherry picked from unreliable sources. Not the predictions of credible players. Try again.

    • Boambee John says:

      Stu

      Great get out of jail card, “Not the predictions of credible players. Try again.”

      Still, I must agree with you on this occasion. The prediction of 50 million climate refugees by 2010 was made in 2005 by the United Nations Environment Program. Clearly not “credible players.

      Can’t recall off hand who made the other prediction, but it was an alarmist source. Perhaps you should check before you make knee jerk reactions?

      If this is your usual level of research and knowledge, then your “crazy” sister in law made a very wise decision in not engaging in climate debate with you.

      Beyond pathetic!

  • spangled drongo says:

    Why China, which is not concerned about their emissions, still talks like alarmists here:

    A new study has found winters in northern China have been warming since 4,000BC – regardless of human activity

    https://mailchi.mp/cc738f49f986/chinese-scientists-warn-of-global-cooling-impact-of-solar-activity?e=6bd6cdb589

  • spangled drongo says:

    Stu,

    just forgetting predictions for a minute, can you tell us from your scientific sources if any part of this less-than-1c-warming since the end of the Little Ice Age is due to natural climate variability?:

    http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/hadcrut4gl/from:1820/to:2019/trend

  • Chris Warren says:

    Do denialists understand this?

    “Last year was the fourth warmest year on record despite La Niña conditions early in the year and the lack of a short-term warming El Niño influence until late in the year. ”

    See https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/news/reporting-state-climate-2018?fbclid=IwAR3jXabARYP2xJnDFD7KPZjdCRNOlvWo-77qovAmq93fRNu33HC07FO5xNk

    Denialists cannot explain northern hemisphere record temperatures in the absence of Milankovitch causes and El Nino causes. Scientists can.

    • Neville says:

      Stop your nonsense you silly fool, what about the AMO?

    • Boambee John says:

      Chris

      Are you referring to the record cold temperatures experienced in the US and Canada this northern summer?

      • Boambee John says:

        Stu

        Have you worked out yet whether the United Nations Environment Program are “unreliable sources” or “credible players”?

      • Chris Warren says:

        There was no global record cold.

        There was global record heat for non-Nino years.

        This does not exclue the possibility that there may be a few locations that had record cold but it would be cherry picking to base any global view on these.
        .

        • Boambee John says:

          Chris

          “There was global record heat for non-Nino years.”

          Particularly those ending in an odd number?

          If you make your categories fine enough, you should be able to “prove” your point.

          • Boambee John says:

            PS

            Didn’t you lecture me a couple of threads ago on the essentiality of including all data in calculating a “global average temperature”?

            Now you say that “there may be a few locations that had record cold but it would be cherry picking to base any global view on these”.

            Bit of cherry picking going on here?

  • Neville says:

    BTW the York Uni tool shows HAD 4 krig at 0.56 c/century from 1850 to 2019 or 0.94 c increase in the last 169 years.
    OH and don’t forget this is a recovery from the LIA or from the coldest period for the last 10,000 years.
    This could be entirely natural and still not be alarming at all.

    http://www.ysbl.york.ac.uk/~cowtan/applets/trend/trend.html

    • Boambee John says:

      Neville

      Is the “York Uni tool” one of the climate alarmists?

      • Neville says:

        Yes BJ, York Uni and Cowton are from the alarmist camp. But their software generates the graphs plus the trends from the data that is supplied by the various teams who create the different data-sets.

  • Neville says:

    Even today after the con artist’s adjustments of HAD 4’s 2 earlier warming trends DOWN and adjustment UP for the 2 later trends,they don’t seem all that alarming.

    Don’t forget HAD 4 is the IPCC’s preferred temp data-set.

    In 2010 these trends were not statistically significantly different according to Phil Jones. What a con and fra-d.

    http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/hadcrut4gl/from:1860/to:1880/trend/plot/hadcrut4gl/from:1910/to:1940/trend/plot/hadcrut4gl/from:1975/to:1998/trend/plot/hadcrut4gl/from:1975/to:2009/trend

  • Chris Warren says:

    More data denialists never mention.

    When CO2 accumulation hits 420ppm the variation since 1950 will be greater than the variation during any ice age.

    https://climate.nasa.gov/system/charts/15_co2_left_040518.gif

    All ice will melt while ever CO2 is over 300 ppm.

    • Boambee John says:

      Chris

      “All ice will melt while ever CO2 is over 300 ppm.”

      How long will the process take?

      Do you really believe the crap you post, or you just a contrarian troll? I am starting to think the latter. You make silly statements all the time, while Stu automatically rejects anything that doesn’t match the narrative, yesterday finding himself in the position of denying the UN Environment Program the status of a “credible source”.

      What a hopeless pair you are. Good only for comedy valye and a bit of amusing chain pulling.

    • Boambee John says:

      I wonder is the erudite, highly educated (or at least credentialled) Chris familiar enough with the accent of the US Deep South to have picked the pun:

      “Would you lark some arse in your drink, Saarh?”

      Probably not!

      But how long will it take for all of the arse to melt?

  • spangled drongo says:

    You’ve gone very quiet, stu, since I asked this question:

    Can you tell us from your scientific sources if any part of this less-than-1c-warming since the end of the Little Ice Age is due to natural climate variability?

    You too can feel free to answer, blith.

  • Neville says:

    Let’s test the donkey’s claim that co2 levels above 300 ppm are a problem? From 1933 to 1979 there was a drop in temp trend and co2 level in 1933 was 308.9 ppm and 1979 was 337 ppm.

    Here is HAD 4 global trend from 1933 to 1979 using WFTs. See light blue trend compared to warming trends and note the trend line is DOWN. Remember this is a period of 46 years and the YORK tool also shows a negative trend over that period for HAD 4 global.

    http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/hadcrut4gl/from:1860/to:1880/trend/plot/hadcrut4gl/from:1910/to:1940/trend/plot/hadcrut4gl/from:1975/to:1998/trend/plot/hadcrut4gl/from:1975/to:2009/trend/plot/hadcrut4gl/from:1933/to:1979/trend

  • Neville says:

    Here I’ve also added the PDO index graph from 1900 using WFTs and it certainly flattens out the appearance of the 4 warming trends over the last century
    So what about this PDO index + AMO + a 1 to 2% variation in cloud cover etc? Perhaps more food for thought?

    http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/hadcrut4gl/from:1860/to:1880/trend/plot/hadcrut4gl/from:1910/to:1940/trend/plot/hadcrut4gl/from:1975/to:1998/trend/plot/hadcrut4gl/from:1975/to:2009/trend/plot/hadcrut4gl/from:1933/to:1979/trend/plot/jisao-pdo/from:1900/to

  • spangled drongo says:

    And even then that HAD 4 trend is highly adjusted.

    They don’t call it the “Adjustocene” for nothing:

    https://realclimatescience.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/06/NASA-US-1999-2016-2.gif

    And Neville, the correlation of the data tampering with atmospheric CO2 is almost perfect. Look how the data is being altered to match CO2 theory:

    https://realclimatescience.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/02/Screen-Shot-2017-02-13-at-8.20.52-AM.gif

    Ah, the things our gatekeepers can do when they are in charge of their own “evidence”.

  • Boambee John says:

    I think Stu has gone into hiding from vigilantes of the UN Association seeking vengeance after he stated that the UN Environment Program is not a credible source on climate matters.

    Relax Stu, you are not alone. I agree with you that the UNEP is not a credible source.

  • Neville says:

    Geeezzz I supposedly deliberately left a big gap in the data and hoped no one would notice?
    We all knew about the 1880 to 1910 cooling, so I presume the resident donkey has just discovered it?
    But whether he likes it or not that longer, later cool trend of 46 years still stands and the co2 levels were higher as well.
    But please tell us how to reduce co2 emissions when nearly all the emissions have come from China and the developing countries after 1990?

  • Chris Warren says:

    Unfortunately Neville is just putting up stuff he does not understand.

    If you add-in the normal 11year sunspot cycle it is clear that it may appear that falling PDO may result in a deceleration of HADCRUT4 during the 1950’s, this is disproven by the fact that falling PDO had no effect around 2000. In other words correlation at one time was not causation.

    From 1910 a rising HADCRUT4 lead a rise in PDO. From 1970 a rising PDO lead a rising HADCRUT4 – the complete opposite.

    Also PDO peaks are little changed and it looks like PDO troughs are more random.

  • Chris Warren says:

    lead => leads

  • Neville says:

    The so called scientists versus contrarians study is full of bogus claims and misinformation.
    Willis has checked out their links and they’d be hilarious if it wasn’t so serious. Even Mosher agrees and has shown readers how to make a complaint.
    They’ve started to delete some of the clueless links and bogus claims but Willis has saved them for future reference.

    https://wattsupwiththat.com/2019/08/15/visibility-and-invisibility/

  • Stu says:

    Funny world eh. Three guys here dig up rubbish and carry on as though they are the final arbiters on all things climate change, while the real world rolls along totally ignoring them. Meantime others like Chris, quote actual science and general consensus, without effect because of the classic cognitive dissonance of the other three. On the same plane as the Donald. Last count he is up to 12,000 lies and distortions. Nev and coy are catching up fast though.

    It is such a joke. You three really are having yourselves on.

    • Boambee John says:

      Stu

      Decided yet if the UN Environment Program is a reliable source yet?

      I asked you a serious question about failed alarmist predictions, and offered two examples. I had mentioned both, with their sources, a few days ago. If you had read what I said then, you might have avoided making a fool of yourself (again).

      Does the thought ever enter your head that you are a screaming example of why sceptics continue to doubt?

      “while the real world rolls along totally ignoring them”

      Yet only a day or so ago, you were lamenting that the sceptics were getting ever more publicity (putting aside for the moment the many stupidities in the Nature article). Now you proclaim that the “real world” is ignoring sceptics. Which is it?

      Your perpetual obesiance to “consensus” demonstrates that you have not grasped even the simplest aspects of the scientific method.

      PS, going by what he posts, you and Chris seem to have failed to convince Don. I suspect that he is both smarter than any of us, and more broadly educated. Think about that before you post your drivel.

  • spangled drongo says:

    And our stu not only dodges and weaves on specifics like answering questions and producing any evidence [heaven forbid, hey, stu?] but then waffles and hand-waves with great hubris about his and blith’s groupthink and consensus religion, pointing out to us sceptics just how virtuous he really is by counting all Trump’s “lies”.

    Wow!!!

    Where would we be without informed comments like this?

    Stuey-luv, you know as much about the real Trump as you know about climate change:

    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/inquirer/can-donald-trump-really-tame-the-dragon/news-story/781d5ea403ee756fe3a23634da779870

    • Boambee John says:

      SD

      I don’t think tbat Stu is here for the hunting!

      • spangled drongo says:

        True, BJ.

        He’s here for the Doomsday.

        But when those other catastrophes never arrived, such as Y2K, the new Ice Age, acid rain, mass human starvation, overpopulation, peak oil, and the Silent Spring, he’s getting desperate.

  • Neville says:

    Here are just some of the predictions of the first Earth Day in 1970. These so called scientists couldn’t have been more wrong and some of these morons carry on to the present day.

    Here’s the link and some of their bizarre predictions. Do they remind you of anyone?

    http://www.aei.org/publication/18-spectacularly-wrong-apocalyptic-predictions-made-around-the-time-of-the-first-earth-day-in-1970-expect-more-this-year-2/

    In the May 2000 issue of Reason Magazine, award-winning science correspondent Ronald Bailey wrote an excellent article titled “Earth Day, Then and Now” to provide some historical perspective on the 30th anniversary of Earth Day. In that article, Bailey noted that around the time of the first Earth Day, and in the years following, there was a “torrent of apocalyptic predictions” and many of those predictions were featured in his Reason article. Well, it’s now the 45th anniversary of Earth Day, and a good time to ask the question again that Bailey asked 15 years ago: How accurate were the predictions made around the time of the first Earth Day in 1970? The answer: “The prophets of doom were not simply wrong, but spectacularly wrong,” according to Bailey. Here are 18 examples of the spectacularly wrong predictions made around 1970 when the “green holy day” (aka Earth Day) started:

    1. Harvard biologist George Wald estimated that “civilization will end within 15 or 30 years unless immediate action is taken against problems facing mankind.”

    2. “We are in an environmental crisis which threatens the survival of this nation, and of the world as a suitable place of human habitation,” wrote Washington University biologist Barry Commoner in the Earth Day issue of the scholarly journal Environment.

    3. The day after the first Earth Day, the New York Times editorial page warned, “Man must stop pollution and conserve his resources, not merely to enhance existence but to save the race from intolerable deterioration and possible extinction.”

    4. “Population will inevitably and completely outstrip whatever small increases in food supplies we make,” Paul Ehrlich confidently declared in the April 1970 Mademoiselle. “The death rate will increase until at least 100-200 million people per year will be starving to death during the next ten years.”

    5. “Most of the people who are going to die in the greatest cataclysm in the history of man have already been born,” wrote Paul Ehrlich in a 1969 essay titled “Eco-Catastrophe! “By…[1975] some experts feel that food shortages will have escalated the present level of world hunger and starvation into famines of unbelievable proportions. Other experts, more optimistic, think the ultimate food-population collision will not occur until the decade of the 1980s.”

    6. Ehrlich sketched out his most alarmist scenario for the 1970 Earth Day issue of The Progressive, assuring readers that between 1980 and 1989, some 4 billion people, including 65 million Americans, would perish in the “Great Die-Off.”

    7. “It is already too late to avoid mass starvation,” declared Denis Hayes, the chief organizer for Earth Day, in the Spring 1970 issue of The Living Wilderness.

    8. Peter Gunter, a North Texas State University professor, wrote in 1970, “Demographers agree almost unanimously on the following grim timetable: by 1975 widespread famines will begin in India; these will spread by 1990 to include all of India, Pakistan, China and the Near East, Africa. By the year 2000, or conceivably sooner, South and Central America will exist under famine conditions….By the year 2000, thirty years from now, the entire world, with the exception of Western Europe, North America, and Australia, will be in famine.”

    9. In January 1970, Life reported, “Scientists have solid experimental and theoretical evidence to support…the following predictions: In a decade, urban dwellers will have to wear gas masks to survive air pollution…by 1985 air pollution will have reduced the amount of sunlight reaching earth by one half….”

    10. Ecologist Kenneth Watt told Time that, “At the present rate of nitrogen buildup, it’s only a matter of time before light will be filtered out of the atmosphere and none of our land will be usable.”

    11. Barry Commoner predicted that decaying organic pollutants would use up all of the oxygen in America’s rivers, causing freshwater fish to suffocate.

    12. Paul Ehrlich chimed in, predicting in his 1970 that “air pollution…is certainly going to take hundreds of thousands of lives in the next few years alone.” Ehrlich sketched a scenario in which 200,000 Americans would die in 1973 during “smog disasters” in New York and Los Angeles.

    13. Paul Ehrlich warned in the May 1970 issue of Audubon that DDT and other chlorinated hydrocarbons “may have substantially reduced the life expectancy of people born since 1945.” Ehrlich warned that Americans born since 1946…now had a life expectancy of only 49 years, and he predicted that if current patterns continued this expectancy would reach 42 years by 1980, when it might level out.

    14. Ecologist Kenneth Watt declared, “By the year 2000, if present trends continue, we will be using up crude oil at such a rate…that there won’t be any more crude oil. You’ll drive up to the pump and say, `Fill ‘er up, buddy,’ and he’ll say, `I am very sorry, there isn’t any.’”

    15. Harrison Brown, a scientist at the National Academy of Sciences, published a chart in Scientific American that looked at metal reserves and estimated the humanity would totally run out of copper shortly after 2000. Lead, zinc, tin, gold, and silver would be gone before 1990.

    16. Sen. Gaylord Nelson wrote in Look that, “Dr. S. Dillon Ripley, secretary of the Smithsonian Institute, believes that in 25 years, somewhere between 75 and 80 percent of all the species of living animals will be extinct.”

    17. In 1975, Paul Ehrlich predicted that “since more than nine-tenths of the original tropical rainforests will be removed in most areas within the next 30 years or so, it is expected that half of the organisms in these areas will vanish with it.”

    18. Kenneth Watt warned about a pending Ice Age in a speech. “The world has been chilling sharply for about twenty years,” he declared. “If present trends continue, the world will be about four degrees colder for the global mean temperature in 1990, but eleven degrees colder in the year 2000. This is about twice what it would take to put us into an ice age.”

    MP: Let’s keep those spectacularly wrong predictions from the first Earth Day 1970 in mind when we’re bombarded tomorrow with media hype, and claims like this from the official Earth Day website:

    Scientists warn us that climate change could accelerate beyond our control, threatening our survival and everything we love. We call on you to keep global temperature rise under the unacceptably dangerous level of 2 degrees C, by phasing out carbon pollution to zero. To achieve this, you must urgently forge realistic global, national and local agreements, to rapidly shift our societies and economies to 100% clean energy by 2050. Do this fairly, with support to the most vulnerable among us. Our world is worth saving and now is our moment to act. But to change everything, we need everyone. Join us.

    Finally, think about this question, posed by Ronald Bailey in 2000: What will Earth look like when Earth Day 60 rolls around in 2030? Bailey predicts a much cleaner, and much richer future world, with less hunger and malnutrition, less poverty, and longer life expectancy, and with lower mineral and metal prices. But he makes one final prediction about Earth Day 2030: “There will be a disproportionately influential group of doomsters predicting that the future–and the present–never looked so bleak.” In other words, the hype, hysteria and spectacularly wrong apocalyptic predictions will continue, promoted by the “environmental grievance hustlers.”

    Earth Day

  • Neville says:

    In 1970 the poorest of the world’s 3.7 bn people were much worse off than they are today. Here’s the latest data comparing 1970 against more recent data.

    In 1970 the Pop of Africa was 366.5 Mil and today is over 1300 mil. And they are much better off today, here are some of the trends.

    https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/africa-population/

    Trends among the world’s poorest countries

    Since 1970, there has been encouraging news emerging from developing countries. According to the UN’s 2011 Human Development Report, life expectancy in developing countries had increased from 59 years in 1970 to 70 years in 2010. School enrollment climbed from 55% to 70% of all primary and secondary school-age children. Also, in the last forty years, per capita GDP doubled to more than ten thousand U.S. dollars.

    The World’s average Human Development Index (HDI), which combines information on life expectancy, schooling and income, has increased 19% since 1990 (and 41% since 1970). This reflects large improvements in life expectancy, school enrollment, literacy, and income. Almost every country has benefited from this progress. Only three countries had a lower HDI in 2010 than in 1970. Those three countries were Zimbabwe, Zambia, and the Democratic Republic of the Congo.

    Poor countries are catching up with the wealthier countries, but not all countries made fast progress. For example, the countries in Sub-Saharan Africa have progressed slowly, largely due to the HIV epidemic. Countries in the former Soviet Union have been held back by an increase in adult mortality.

    To illustrate the income inequality between rich and poor countries, consider these facts: about 1.75 billion people live in multi-dimensional poverty, meaning extreme deprivation in education, health, and standard of living; 1.44 billion people out of the developing world’s 6.9 billion people live on $1.25 per day; 2.6 billion people are estimated to be living on less than $2 a day. Multidimensional poverty varies by region from three percent in Europe and Central Asia to 65% in Sub-Saharan Africa.
    Source: Human Development Reports

    Information Please® Database, © 2013 Pearson
    Measuring Global Poverty
    Economic Statistics
    Per Capita Foreign Aid Assistance by World’s Wealthiest Countries, 2002

    • spangled drongo says:

      Thanks for those details, Neville.

      When will they ever learn. When will they ever learn?

      Another aspect of the blith’n’stu syndrome is the fact that the rational alternative is not in the new Left DNA. They are the force of protest over debate, seeming over doing, fake over fact and Conspiracy over Democracy.

      As Nigel Farage said recently about the concept of “loser’s consent” that political scholars have examined in detail. Without loser’s consent, how does democracy function? The willingness to accept defeat, rather than resort to protests or firearms, is what underpins our democratic success.

  • Stu says:

    Since you raised Y2K, the reason there was no crisis was the work that went in to fix the problem before hand. Having written some of the programs, that had the problem due to the limits of 70’s technology, I know how things could have failed with simple 2 digit year fields.

    It was a real problem averted, but one that contrarians live to pick on because “nothing happened”.

    Similar with the CFC’s and the ozone. A global decision reduced the problem. Will eventually be the same with carbon..

    Once again to you panic merchants. Things will not change suddenly but we have to start down the road. Of course we will still have coal mines and power stations in 2030, but the new, add on stuff can be new energy systems, at least reducing the acceleration if not even slowing the speed.

    • Neville says:

      Well you’ve condemned us AGAIN, now explain how China, India and the developing world figures into your coming apocalypse? Funny thing is they will be increasing their co2 emission for a long time to come.

    • spangled drongo says:

      “It was a real problem averted, but one that contrarians live to pick on because “nothing happened”.’

      You mean to tell us, stu, that by applying a little common sense and due diligence that nothing actually happened?

      Well ain’t that amazing?

      Isn’t that exactly what we have been trying to tell you about the climate problem – or non-problem as the case may be?

      With Y2K, people actually believed that the world was coming to an end. Hundreds of stories were produced in the years leading up to January 1, 2000, talking about how suddenly everything that was computerized would come to a crashing halt.

      Trains, planes, the lot.

      But guess what?

      Jan 1, 2000 came and went without a glitch.

      I would have thought that after your real world experiences with Y2K you would be a little more rational about the rest of your end-of-the-world scenarios.

  • Neville says:

    Another example of the clueless left wing morons who always knock Australia, yet praise China and NZ for their so called work towards mitigation of their so called CAGW. Just more BS and fra-d.
    The NZ PM is a first class donkey, but deputy PM Winston Peters is much better informed and is well aware of China’s true ambitions in the Pacific and around the world.
    Here Peta Credlin and her guests tell the real story of Aussie’s aid and support over many decades around the Pacific and beyond. We have much to be proud of, but get little thanks in return.

  • Boambee John says:

    SD and Neville

    It is disaster porn.

    Misanthropes who see humanity as not worthy of Gaia imagine scenarios in which world population is reduced drastically. They and those close to them will, of course, survive, and lead the survivors into a new utopia.

    Some, like the wackademic whose paper Chris linked to on an earlier thread, envision universities surviving as bastions of civilisation like the monasteries of the Dark Age. Modern universities lack the defensive understandings that helped the monasteries continue.

    That paper had a priceless reference to the need to be able to make aspirin as an urgent issue. The old Army diagnosis: PUO, take two aspirin, two days light duty.

    They have no idea what a collapse of civilisation willcontinue. Banditry and rule of the strong, well armed and ruthless! The lovers of disaster porn do not generally fit into those categories.

    I don’t mind them having survivalist fantasies, but I see no reason to destroy the world so a few misanthropes can hope to live out their fantasies.

  • Boambee John says:

    will entail, annoying predictive text!

  • Stu says:

    “With Y2K, people actually believed that the world was coming to an end. Hundreds of stories were produced in the years leading up to January 1, 2000, talking about how suddenly everything that was computerized would come to a crashing halt.”

    Same people that believe some stupid old book predicts the rapture every couple of years. Plenty of suckers in the world. Can I sell you a trip to Jonestown?

    Typical press and morons to suck it up, just like a well funded climate denial conspiracy.

  • spangled drongo says:

    What would we do without these true believers:

    A virtue-signalling New Zealand is going to send its farmers broke by addressing sheep and cow farts to impress the world.

    # Generation of methane by trees and from the breakdown of cellulose by microbes and a wide range of animal life is pervasive across all vegetated land. Such natural generation of methane is similar to what is being attributed to livestock. Plant material not eaten by livestock is only consumed by something else or decomposed by microbial activity with similar amounts of methane being produced.

    The whole idea of tearing the heart out of a nation’s economy to reduce methane emissions from livestock is an unbelievable display of scientific, technological and economic ignorance:

    https://quadrant.org.au/opinion/doomed-planet/2019/08/kiwi-climatology-land-of-the-long-white-clods/

    • Stu says:

      Are you sitting down? I agree with you on this one. Not sure of the ratio, but cows and sheep also consume a lot of carbon. So think of their output as being part of the current carbon cycle, not a problem really. Net result, NZ are doing ok already.

      As for our man in Tuvalu, I think he screwed up. Surely he could have been more considerate of their unanimous (apart from him) opinion on the need to make a strong statement. He could have talked them down from “no new mines” to something more mellow and meaningless in the short term. Why do that? To retain the influence we have (had maybe now) with the island nations and kept China at bay. Now they will be more susceptible to Chinese aid and influence. Not good diplomacy, almost from the Trump playbook.

      I saw Chinese aid at work in Fiji earlier this year in the form of school buses. Innocuous enough and quite useful, but the beginning of heavier influence such as major infrastructure.

      Not sure if Don’s Pol Sci extends to diplomacy but would be interested in his opinion on the Tuvalu episode.

      • spangled drongo says:

        Yes, and like humans they also sequester a lot. But I thought the average Kiwi was smart enough not to buy crap like that.

        So you think that ScoMo should be a hypocrite just to please a bunch of self-serving SSI politicians that are already collecting over a billion a year from us?

        Good on him for being honest and forthright. Very rare in that group.

        We provide more money to them than the rest of the world combined and they come the raw prawn on climate change when all they have to do is check their own shorelines to know what’s really happening.

        Do you think he is not smart to let them know privately that he is aware of the facts?

        And advise them that if that’s how they want to play then maybe there won’t be quite so much tossed into the kitty?

        The fact that they don’t acknowledge China is “sinking” them 20 times faster than we are, and paying them a lot less for the pleasure, shows what hypocrites they are to say that about us and still take the money.

        Isn’t it amazing how people require “statements” and ignore facts?

  • spangled drongo says:

    And after getting their bums well and truly kicked in the fed election guess who are having 2 bob each way like true waffling hypocrites?:

    Senator Wong this morning said Scott Morrison “damaged our relationships” at the Pacific Island Forum by watering down calls for action on climate change in a joint statement from the 18 leaders.

    But the opposition Senate leader acknowledged a Labor government also would have sought to water the leaders’ statement down.

    Good ol’ Penny. She sounds like stu. Always happy to throw us under a bus. But keep it up. At least it will keep you and Albo away from the cheque book.

  • Stu says:

    SD, you clearly have no concept of diplomacy. You would fit in very well in the Trump administration. Bull in china shop seems to strike a chord.

  • Stu says:

    Oh, and here is a fairly concise presentation on the causes of global warming, it is worth a look, unless you are a loony denier. It is from that “lefty” organisation Bloomberg.

    https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2015-whats-warming-the-world/

  • spangled drongo says:

    That’s as pathetic as all your arguments, stu. They mention everything except the bleedin’ obvious.

    During the last 80 centuries with low CO2 the world warmed at least 4c higher than currently. Higher sea levels. Higher latitude tree lines etc.

    There are dozens, if not hundreds of PR papers to support this from measureable evidence, not models.

    It was caused mostly by something called natural climate variability [Nat Var] which works as a result of the unquantifiable forcings and feedbacks of the climate system as admitted by all climate scientists and following on from the coldest, prolonged period in the history of civilisation, Nat Var is only ever going to go one way.

    We are still in the lowest quartile of Nat Var for the Holocene.

    Do you, as your link does, seriously deny the existence of Nat Var?

    Please give me a yes or no.

    And then how about answering my other question;

    What is happening today with current CO2 levels that hasn’t happened during those 80 centuries of much lower CO2 levels?

  • spangled drongo says:

    Terry McCrann in the Aus tells it like it should be with renewables:

    There is one very simple but absolutely fundamental obligation that should be required from anyone wanting to supply power into the eastern states electricity grid.

    The obligation is this: if you wish to sell power into the grid, the NEM or National Energy Market, you will have to guarantee a minimum level of supply and guarantee that minimum level of supply 24/7.

    And critically, that minimum level can be no lower than 80 per cent of the maximum amount of energy you will be permitted to sell into the grid.

    This will instantly eliminate the parasitic way that especially wind is allowed to freeload on the grid.

    You want to sell 1000MW into the grid, you will have to guarantee you will supply at least 800MW all the time. That’s to say, 24/7 through the year.

    It would expose the essential and incurable uselessness of so-called renewables: the very reason we stopped using them, progressively from the Stone Age on and then totally in developed nations in the 19th century when real sources of power and energy from coal, gas and oil became technologically and broadly available.

  • Stu says:

    SD,
    “During the last 80 centuries with low CO2 the world warmed at least 4c higher than currently. Higher sea levels. Higher latitude tree lines etc.”

    You bloody dimwit, you can’t see the idiocy in your own postings here. Yes the earth has been on a long cooling down trend, with ups and downs, for 8000 years until we came along and stuffed it up with our industrialisation and putting carbon back into the air. May I remind you we have burned in just over 100 years what the earth took 100 million years to bury. When your temperature rises 1 or 2 degrees you get really sick, have a thought for the earth.

    Go and look again. Your natural variation bull does not cut it.

    • spangled drongo says:

      Are you trying to tell us that there were no cool periods during that 8,000 years?

      That it went straight to ~ 6c higher than now at the beginning of the Holocens and we have had a giant hockey stick ever since?

      You’re in absolute denial of the facts.

      Nat Var is the only possible answer for the majority of that warming.

      And we may discover that Nat Var is accounting for more than that and CO2 is causing cooling, such is the state of our current science.

      To panic over that tiny amount of warming, less than half a degree either side of the mean, that when taken to the nearest whole number reads as NOTHING is rank stu-pidity.

  • Stu says:

    SD, further wrote “It would expose the essential and incurable uselessness of so-called renewables: the very reason we stopped using them, progressively from the Stone Age on and then totally in developed nations in the 19th century when real sources of power and energy from coal, gas and oil became technologically and broadly available.”

    Examine those words folks. “…stopped using them…. from the stone age”. So he thinks current renewables have not advanced with the “technolgically…” available use of “real sources of power.,. “. So technology works for one and not the other, oh please!

    As well as Cognitive Dissonance, perhaps he also suffers from Normalcy bias since he seems incapable of recognizing the situation the earth faces because of the intransigence of governments to action.

    • Boambee John says:

      Stu

      The latest systems (solar and wind) are indeed technologically better than the earlier versions, but they still, and will continue to, suffer from variability and unpredictability.

      Until storage systems become better and cheaper than they currently are, solar and wind are but auxiliary energy sources. They have some useful applications, but cannot supply reliable, continuous, power to an industrialised society.

      To believe otherwise is to live in a fantasy world.

    • spangled drongo says:

      As both a yacht racing skipper who has won his share of top trophies and a user of highly developed wind turbines in the bush, yes, we stopped using this energy commercially because we knew it had reached the end of its realistic development.

      That’s not to say that you could spend lifetimes awa trillions to extract a little more efficiency but essentially we knew a long time ago we had come to the end of that experiment.

      Only someone desperate to wreck society, or stu-pid, could argue otherwise.

      You sound just like little Greta, stu.

      Have you got Aspergers, too?

      • Stu says:

        It is surely a joke to compare the older, piddling, noisy yacht type generators and their farm equivalents with the current generation of 9 megawatt monsters (now even 12 Mw being planned). Presumably your farm water pump was a typical Comet or Southern Cross gadget which once again is irrelevant in the current context. Have you ever heard of the concept of scale? With the height of the latest turbines comes greater wind strength and reliability. Have you not heard of wind shear?

        In reality the latest development of small wind generators has enabled numerous racing yachts to complete long voyages using no other form of power generation. There are even examples of generating power from the props while sailing and even thin film laminate solar attached to sail surfaces. The technology is far from dead.

        Once again old chap your allegiance to fossils is telling.

        • Boambee John says:

          Stu

          “With the height of the latest turbines comes greater wind strength and reliability. Have you not heard of wind shear?”

          To say nothing of more infrasound and a greater ability to kill birds, bats and insects.

          To save the environment for birds, bats and insects of course.

          • Stu says:

            “Birds, bats and insects”, a classic denialist trope. Next you will be saying they are getting so tall they are a danger to aviation. And “Australian wind turbine disease” remains unproven.

          • Boambee John says:

            Well Stu, since you mention aviation, you might have observed that power transmission lines in some areas have plastic globes on them to increase their visibility, though they are lower than the tip of wind generators. You might be onto something there!

            Also fascinating that you describe “Birds, bats and insects” as a “classic denialist trope.” Can the same be said of the bird that caused such delays in the Adani process? Are the Adani protesters all denialists? I guess Bob Brown is now a classic denialist.

            Seriously, the ability of alarmists to spin on a ten cent piece is one of their more amusing aspects. “Whatever it takes”?

          • spangled drongo says:

            Well said, BJ!

          • Boambee John says:

            Stu

            “Australian wind turbine disease” remains unproven.

            I understand the wind generation companies were able to hire some top scientists to research the problem.

            Seems tgeircjobs with tobacco companies had been abolished.

        • spangled drongo says:

          As usual, stu, your ignorance is mind boggling.

          The well known domestic wind turbine generators that are still being used in remote locations as they have been for around a century, are as efficient as their bigger brethren, don’t kill birds and have more practical features ie, the ability to automatically angle their blade pitch relative to wind strength so that they rotate at a constant speed through a wide range of wind speeds. They can’t seem to apply that to the bigger turbines and so they have less adaptability.

          This technology hasn’t changed much in the last 60 years.

          And BTW, my yacht designs are still winning international yacht races. How about you?

          And do you know anything about whyisitso’s comment?

          • Stu says:

            I was just quoting you old man “we stopped using this energy commercially because we knew it had reached the end of its realistic development.”

          • spangled drongo says:

            And you didn’t have the wit to realise that I was referring to the Industrial [r]evolution?

        • spangled drongo says:

          “…the latest development of small wind generators has enabled numerous racing yachts to complete long voyages using no other form of power generation”

          Voyages, maybe, but not races.

          Many modern racing yachts run a diesel motor for the entire length of the race.

          Others are allowed to run one for short periods for battery charging, depending on the racing class.

        • spangled drongo says:

          “In reality the latest development of small wind generators has enabled numerous racing yachts to complete long voyages using no other form of power generation.”

          No. Even on voyages they still need their diesels twice daily for refrigeration.

  • whyisitso says:

    It’s now 11 days since Don’s last post on this site. I am concerned that his health may have taken a turn for the worse. Anyone with info?

  • Neville says:

    Here is the growth rate for world population since 1950. As can be seen the growth rate has been falling since 1962 and will continue to fall until 2100 and beyond.
    I’ve never seen anybody that understands this projection, but often a certain hostility to the suggestion. Dr Rosling used this real world data in his lectures as well.

    https://ourworldindata.org/uploads/2013/05/Updated-World-Population-Growth-Rate-Annual-1950-2100.png

    • Chris Warren says:

      Neville

      The growth rate remains positive.

      The result is a rising population.

      https://ourworldindata.org/uploads/2019/06/2019-Revision-%E2%80%93-World-Population-Growth-1700-2100-768×547.png

      We need a negative growth rate.

      • Boambee John says:

        Chris

        And your policy proposals to achieve a “negative growth rate” are?

        • Chris Warren says:

          I am looking for suggestions.

          • Boambee John says:

            Chris

            Your proposal, essentially your problem.

            However, for the sake of discussion, I will offer some thoughts about what Australia could do to meet your twin aims of lowering per capita CO2 emissions and reducing and ultimately reducing population. I see little point in proposing world wide actions, as our influence there is limited.

            On per capita emissions, the simplest thing Australia could do would be to end all immigration from developing nations. Every immigrant from a developing nation to a developed one causes an immediate increase in world per capita emissions, as their living standard adjusts to the higher per capita developed rate. The same policy applied by all developed nations would increase the effect.

            On population, stopping all immigration would rapidly bring Australian population growth to a halt, followed soon by a gradual reduction in total numbers.

            Neither of these actions might meet whatever timetable you have in mind, however.

  • Neville says:

    I suppose we’ll just have to remind our blog donkeys about the real earth data again and again? Here is the OECD 2015 IEA data for TOTAL energy.

    Note GEO+ S&Wind are just 2.1% of TOTAL energy.

    https://www.iea.org/stats/WebGraphs/OECDTOT4.pdf

    And here is the IEA non OECD TOTAL energy data for 2015. Note GEO + S &Wind are just 1.2% and they’ve added another 3ppm to co2 levels in the last 12 months.
    IOW S&Wind energy are a pathetic joke and TOTAL waste of time and money. We Aussies should follow the developing country’s example and build more coal fired stations ASAP.

    https://www.iea.org/stats/WebGraphs/NONOECDTOT4.pdf

  • Stu says:

    Don says to tell you all normal service should resume shortly.

  • Neville says:

    I’ve shown how the pop of our world has increased over a long period of time with a number of links over the last year or more.
    So the pop is increasing , but the RATE OF GROWTH has been slowing for about 60 years. In 1950 the pop was 2.5 bn and then doubled to 5 bn in 1987. That’s just 37 years.
    The next doubling ( to 10 bn) will take over 80 years ( 1987 to 2070?) and sometime after 2100 the pop will fall into negative growth . Sometime after that date the pop will start to fall at a faster rate. Who knows when and by how much?
    But today the growth rate for Africa is a lot faster and will lag the developing countries by a longer period of time. For example they’ve added another 0.9 + billion people in Africa since 1970 or about +2.7 times in just the last 50 years.

  • Boambee John says:

    Interesting exchange up thread between Chris and Anders Valland on the Precautionary Principle.

    Worth scrolling back to read it.

    • spangled drongo says:

      Yes BJ, Anders interesting, blith blithering as usual. His solution is to run around in ever decreasing circles.

  • Stu says:

    Tesla have released the Series 3 here. Another step to removing range anxiety, it is claimed to have a 660km ability, albeit at quite a price. Still it is another step on the road. It is predicted there will be price parity for EV’s and ICE vehicles within 2 to 3 years. Yes I know, rare earths, recycling, source of power etc, so don’t bother. Ingenuity will solve all problems.

  • Neville says:

    The OZ Tesla 3 starting price of 60K hasn’t been confirmed yet, but even if it was about 60K ( but probably more) it seems a clueless choice compared to a Toyota Corolla that can still be purchased for under 22K. And ditto an Hyundai i 30.
    And you can drive a lot further on a full tank and fill up anywhere in about 5 minutes. If people are really stupid enough to buy one of these fra-dulent con jobs that is their choice, but it will have ZERO difference to climate or temp for thousands of years.
    And there should be no subsidies paid for their sick delusions. Let them carry the full burden for their mistake. I’d pocket the extra 40K and enjoy the convenience and peace of mind + reliability of owning a Corolla or i 30 etc.

  • Neville says:

    Poor little Greta should’ve just just jumped on a plane to the USA, instead she’s been involved in more co2 emissions and crazy posturing about their so called CAGW.
    How lucky we are that these DEM con merchants haven’t got their paws on the US presidency YET? But only time will tell and sane, rational people still have hope.

    https://wattsupwiththat.com/2019/08/18/doh-climate-messiah-greta-thunbergs-plastic-boat-trip-will-result-in-two-airline-flights/

  • Neville says:

    It looks like another good year for Indian farmers with the timely arrival of monsoon rains. Don’t forget Ehrlich told us that this country wouldn’t be able to feed itself and millions of people would be dying and suffering endless famine and misery. Today India is forging ahead.
    All this was supposed to happen 30 + years ago and even the USA , the UK and the entire world would suffer a similar fate. So said the eco-loons. Yet people still believe this fool and they are still telling us we have a very limited period to fix our so called CAGW.
    And a sizable proportion of the population STILL believe this message of doom.

    https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy/agriculture/monsoon-rebound-prepares-ground-for-bumper-harvest/articleshow/70709020.cms

    • Chris Warren says:

      Neville

      You are the eco-loon and the fool.

      Luckily, no sizeable proportion of the population believe your message.

  • Stu says:

    The series 3 actually starts at $130,000. But it is a luxury car with full auto control etc so should not be seen as typical of the emerging low end EV’s. For people who never drive interstate and just drive locally, the range and recharge times will not be an issue and servicing costs etc virtually nil. I am up for it as a second vehicle option. Even the oil companies get it. BP have rolled out EV charging points at over 100 servos already. The change has started, get used to it.

  • Neville says:

    It seems our resident dopes couldn’t care less about co2 emissions or wasting money for a guaranteed ZERO return. Who cares as long as they can yap about vacuous nonsense that doesn’t make any sense.
    They’re in this for their infantile left wing political kicks and will vote for fools who don’t even understand about their so called CAGW They clearly want to waste endless billions $ that will deliver no measurable change to temp or climate at all.
    Meanwhile the developing countries don’t suffer from these delusions and are building many more CF stns at home and overseas. Just look at their soaring emissions over the last 30 years.

    • Chris Warren says:

      But Neville, you are the infantile fool who is yapping on about vacuous nonsense.

      You clearly want to waste endless spans of the environment and of humanity.

      Why should we suffer your delusions – Just look at the soaring emissions over the last 150 years.

      • Boambee John says:

        Chris

        “Just look at the soaring emissions over the last 150 years.”

        And is it a fundamental assumption of the models that “soaring emissions” = increasing temperatures?

        And what are “endless spans of the environment”?

  • Neville says:

    I know we shouldn’t respond to stupid babyish nonsense from fools who don’t understand very simple sums and evidence.
    But I’ll just remind our resident donkey that Australia was found to be responsible for 0.006 c of the temp increase since the start of the Industrial Revolution.
    That’s according to the Concordia uni study and that’s irrelevant because we are a net co2 sink as measured by the Japanese Ibuki satellite data.

    • Boambee John says:

      Neville

      Can you give Chris a reference to the Ibuki data please.

    • Chris Warren says:

      So the big baby spews the foolish nonsense about Australia being a net sink.

      Science measures the CO2 in the atmosphere above Australia and it increases. If Australia was a net sink, it would fall.

      The facts are: https://capegrim.csiro.au/Demo1.pl

      Also Australia’s Department of Environment reports that there is a “declining carbon sink from the land sector”. In fact “Emissions for the year to December 2018 are estimated to be 538.2 Mt CO2-e” an increase on previous year.

      Once the sink is taken into account the Department predicts that in 2020 Australia’s emisions will still be positive. The department says:

      “Emissions in 2020 are projected to be 540 Mt CO2-e,”

      You do not get this result if Australia is a net sink. A net sink means that emissions are negative.

      Further out, the Department says:

      “Emissions to 2030 are projected to grow 4 per cent above 2020 levels, driven by higher emissions from LNG
      production, increased transport activity, a declining forest sink in the LULUCF sector, and growth in agricultural
      activity after a return to average seasonal conditions.”

      Again – growing emissions from 2020 means there is no net sink.

      So yet again the truth is the exact opposite of a looney denialist’s lies.

      • Boambee John says:

        Chris

        CO2 spreads throughout the atmosphere. It does not remain in the location where it is emitted. It is quite possible for Australia to be a nett CO2 sink while the Cape Grim numbers continue to rise as a result of emissions elsewhere.

        You will have to do better than simple denialism.

        PS, no comment on my population and per capita suggestions?

  • Neville says:

    Meanwhile China is committed to building 300 new coal fired plants in a number of developing countries around the world.

    https://www.npr.org/2019/04/29/716347646/why-is-china-placing-a-global-bet-on-coal?t=1556610919897

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